,,
And the sectors
The bull market is now number 4 in duration but
not yet so high in increase in prices. This chart however is using
the Dow and it has greatly underperformed the market. Check
the VLE chart later in this letter and see that is has gone
up 167% since its low 4 years ago so 41% a year is pretty fantastic.
If the Dow had kept up with the broad market it would now be at
19,200.
It was an amazing week for our watch list plays this week with 33 stocks
hitting their buy point, probably one of the best weeks and only one (DXPE)
closed lower on the day than its buy point. In the next two session however it
ran up $10.00
For our
special situation stocks the week ended down as they got hit with a short
selling fling from a short selling site that attacks in mass, stocks that have
made a big run up and have small floats.
Yikes are they going to fight the tiger next.
Maybe I better mention that we do have a link to a disclaimer on each newsletter
and on the site. I am not a broker so cannot give financial advice this
newsletter and the site are only for educational purposes -- whoops I am not a
teacher.. is only for informational purposes.
Read the April 30 -
NUCON-RF, Inc. Chairman Lawrence C. McQuade Provides
Update on State of Affairs
Click
Ok so you know that this week NNRF
came under attack by a shorting site. This is why I think they did it. A year
ago January GlobeTel Communications, GTEM a small USA VOIP and wireless company,
announced a huge contract from a Russian company for $600 million to
install wireless networks to 30 Russian cites. Why would a small company like
them and in the USA get such a contract. Maybe to Americans it was not so
strange but to me it was bizarre as there are so many qualified companies here
in Russia that it made no sense. I checked out the Russian company and could find nothing
so checked to see if there was a new bid at the government to buy the right to
frequencies for wireless and no bids had been submitted. The stock price was
shooting up like mad on GTE and no one believed me that it was a phony deal. Of course
the deal did not come about and the stock is 25 cents again. So stocklemon
without checking on NUCON-RF figures maybe they are not real. I invited them to
come to Russia and see. Anyway that is why the attack. They are 150% wrong totally wrong.
The chairman of the board of NUCON-RF as you know was in the past
the United States Assistant Secretary of Commerce, Vice Chairman of
Prudential Mutual Fund and Executive Vice President with W.R. Grace & Co (they
have sales of $2.8 billion) A man like this does not become the Chairman of the
Board of NUCON-RF unless there is some very solid structure and plan with the
company. - Here is a bit of news. It is something I have written about a
few times as it is major and a strong reason to be invested in the Nuclear
sector in Russia now. If some thought I was making it up about the formation of
the huge nuclear holding company - well Putin is a believer.
Putin Signs Bill to Set Up
State-Owned Nuclear Industry Giant in Russia
And who is the CEO of NUCON-RF - non other than
the former Deputy Minister of Nuclear Energy
right at the time of the beginning of the world's largest expansion
in nuclear energy. There was a good
press release this
week - a definitive agreement with the International
Center of Environmental Security (ICES) of the Ministry of Nuclear
Energy of Russia. Note in section 4 that they will define areas
in which to use FEECOM/BIECOM, NUCON-RFs own propriety shielding
material. I tell you folks it is really progressing very well and
you can see that they are connected to the top in the sector.
Here is an article on NUCON-RF from
seekingalpha.com
With the events taking place
and being unfolded to you in the coming days weeks and months I
trust that you will extremely pleased to be invested in NNRF. In
the last few days, I like some of you, show a draw down and the
shorts have their moment to play. This is a solid company with amazing
leadership. And longs always make more money than shorts.
For someone who bought the stock at $5 and sold at $10 they made
100% profit but for someone who shorted at $10 and covered at $5 they
made only 50% profit. For the same move in price the longs made
twice as much.
But this week the shorts did do their
thing and sold heavily though many of the shares were naked meaning
there were actually no shares to borrow. Even so, when they do buy
back they will help drive the price. All shorts are eventual buyers
and this is the good thing about them.
I expect this week we will be pleased with some company information
that may come out but am not sure that it will have an immediate
huge effect on the stock though it may. The chart is damaged technically and it would
be better I think if we could build a base even if it did drop a bit
more. You see that it took a couple of weeks to run up from this level of
the 62% retrace so if it took that long to consolidate and build a
base it would be a stronger chart. I think a quick rise would invite
another round of short selling so to take some time would allow the RSI to settle also.
We know fundamentally the stock is greatly below a fair price now
but as I mentioned in the Video this week - $10 is a psychological
barrier and stocks on the first try seldom can hold it as so many
people take profit there on the first attempt. The good thing about
that is everyone sees that it was there and as the company news
keeps getting better this price becomes like a target magnet so give
it some time for the chart to correct itself as it will. I know many people got stopped out as the RSI
dropped below the 70 line. Others like me who either did not have
stops set of are holding long term for the tax break will just be
patient as many good thing are now taking shape it seems with the
company. This stock lemon thing brought a lot of attention to the
company and that will mean more buyers in the future as they get to
know the company. Many of the people who shorted
will in time become longs as they will now start to follow the
company events.
One thing
is curious. That in the posting on that site it mentioned that Barry Davis has
1 million shares - he bought them by the way and these are
restricted shares so he cannot sell for the time limit. They wanted
to make this sound like a bad thing but it is a great thing. He has
contacts with many brokerage firms who have clients interested in
new ideas and also knows large investors of course. So Barry wants to share the company story and
information as widely as he can as he has his own interest also in
the situation. If the company paid someone there is no incentive
directly but if you own shares which you cannot sell for typically a
year or two than you work your butt off at no cost to the company.
So in my opinion if I hear that someone well connected in the
markets is helping to
spread the word about the company I hope they have a ton of shares
so they will be 200% motivated.
Many people had not bought on the first move up
so wonder when to get in. Let us watch on Monday and see. The shorts
are totally mistaken fundamentally but at the moment they still may
have the chart on their side. You know we like 3-4 day pullback
bounces but this may bounce then have to test again so it may take a
bit to set up. That site may try to stir up their group with more
nonsense but it only goes so far as one look at the leaders of
NUCON-RF gives you a clear ides of the direction. By the way lets
check the NUCON-RF website soon as it may have new material.
This is the home of Velkont (as it says
in Russian on top of the building) one of the current
pending acquisitions of NUCON-RF. Velkont has approximately 550,000
square feet of production facilities and employs 1,400 skilled workers.
Their website is here
http://www.velkont.ru/
If you are in doubt about any of our special
situation stocks you can give me a call as my USA auto forward
number is on that page. Our time is 8 hours ahead of Wall Street
time. Unlike the website that is trying to knock this stock and does
not give their name or contact information at all. We who are
sharing truthful company information have our home numbers on our
sites.
CYRX did really well on Friday after its
drop. I had so
many phone calls mostly form people with support that I totally missed the low and only added
more shares over $2. I
had bought quite a bit over $3 on Thursday so a heck of a draw down
but I think it will be a short lived draw down. This stock railed 35% from its low on a down day so huge for those who were watching
and bought it so low. I think there may be something soon to come as otherwise we could not have seen such a big
move up on
Friday and a close above support. This is now a perfect buy point
right at support. (well not as perfect as $1.60 would have been.)
Anyway I will sure be checking for any news on this one a the EMA
about to cross and you know about fireworks.
I have used this stock chart in the past but today use only this part. The stock
ran from $0.70 to over $2 in a short time and all looked great but then the
bottom fell out - oh no Mr. Bill. So some sold and some were stopped out and some
held. Note the cross over about to happen with the 200-day and 50-day. As you
know this stock went to $24 in a year.
This chart looks about the same a move from $0.70 to over $2 all
looks great then oh no.....
Note the crossover of the 200 and 50-day has already happened so a
very bullish sign.
Fortunately this is
coffee and if tea were rapidly replacing coffee it may not be good
to buy but since coffee is hot all over the word (get it) the sales
of it are great. This company is little known so far by many investors
yet it has grown
from 325 (about) farmers to 120,000 and they recently added
3,000 in Jamaica and now the country of
Ethiopia for more supply. No one is gong to come
along with a better modem or switch as this is not high tech - this
is coffee so no real surprises on the downside. Peets Coffee PEET trades with a PE of 47 and Green
Mountain Coffee GMCR trades at a PE of 62. Projections from
reliable sources for earrings are from $0.30 to 0.50 into 2008
regardless of the exact time it takes. As a young company it may not
be able to trade at such high PEs but at only a 30 PE at 30 cents
in earnings the stock price would be $9. Note that this chart's RSI also showed
the move below 70 right at the short term sell point if you were
only trading the stock. Watching that makes for a convenient stop if
you do not wish to hold through a retrace. I think we will be
very pleased with the long term performance of this stock. It ran up
300% in a couple of weeks so not surprising to see a retrace.
The Dow now is very close to the top trend line resistance and note the
RSI like our stocks above is running in the overbought area so caution.
The S&P 500 is similar and hit
resistance and so far pulled back a bit.
This longer term chart of the S&P 500 is shown here
using the concept of the chartist Matt Frailey where it shows that the
bull market is when all is over the 20-month EMA and the RSI above 50 and a bear
when RSI is below 50 and the index below the 20-month EMA. I am showing it as
even though the chart above looks overbought short term, this monthly chart sure
looks like the index will go to at least test its highs.
Also for the short term this indicator of the number of stocks in the
S&P 500 above their 50-day MA is getting high again.
The top 100 stocks for the Nasdaq are also at the top trend line in this weekly
chart and stochastics again over 80.
In the monthly however and represented here as the QQQQs we
see a break out so tech may be getting back in favor? Maybe too
early yet to tell but best close in a few years.
Here the SOX has a clear break out.
The weekly of the Russell 2000 at resistance and high stochastics.
Gold was down for the week as once again
our buy and sell indicators worked perfectly. You know if you do not
trade futures you can by gold using GLD as it trades at one
tenth the price of gold. For the last 10 months using the buy sell
signals would have gained a lot of points long an short.
Oil not much to say as it sill in
channel and again near top resistance.
I buy rubles with dollar and
getting fewer of them each time lately. If it cannot bounce here the
next point of support you can see but other indicators suggest a
rally coming this summer or earlier.
The Value Line is a good one to show the broad market and it is up 167%
since the low.
Next week has a very
positive seasonal bias.
Both the OTC and SPX
have been up about 75% of the time with an average gain in excess of
1%.
http://alphaim.net/
The economic calendar from
briefing.com
This stock was put on the watch list saying it was not a strong candidate but it
was used in the morning video to point out the possible bear flag and it worked
exactly that way. So watch for this pattern in stocks especially ones that have
many red volume days that are higher than green ones.
We had some short term lemons working last week but we also did have
33 stocks that were pure lemonade so here are some more that
may also become tasty.
RMIX golden cross and first level at
$8.50 (I typed thirst level a moment ago)
CLS at $6.75 and
later into gap at $7.00 but at that point would need big volume.
RBC at resistance and
trend just overhead. The meeting of the moving averages and the
fireworks move on Friday is kind of normal trying to keep a death
cross from forming so if we play this lets be quick or keep a tight
stop as this may be a fake out.
MSO not a great chart as
the averages are reversed but still a play over $19.50 even knowing
the woman's background. :-)
HMSY a nice chart with
cup and handle. A buy at $23 break and good volume could make for a
very nice move of $4 in time - a measured move.
MGRM is a pullback play.
YOU see other stocks that make huge moves up also retrace. Your stop
would be either under the trend line and 200-day or the Friday and
Thursday low depending on you. You could also wait until a high
volume run rate and a move over the Friday high but of course safer
to buy closer to support.
CVM a penny . Not a
favorite for me but over $0.90 may work and has recently had the EMA
crossover.
MHK has a break out over
$94.50
ACI pretty nice chart and
waiting for a move over $38.20
And the last one for this
weeks letter is TK. We got their break out at under $52 and
now it has the next buy on the break of $60. By the Way someone
called and they did not realize that we have new
watch list
additions each day on the site. It seems impossible but this
newsletter does get posted to many sites around the world so maybe
they never saw our site. The message board also has a variety of
stock suggestions and some are excellent but are outside the type we
put on the list so check them often
May 1, 2 and 9 are holidays in
Russia so it is a custom for a lot of people to just go ahead and
take both weeks off and go to their summer homes or for a travel
vacation. The traffic in the city seems weird these week as it is
very noticeably diminished. This as you may know is the shopping
center park near my home and taken last summer as it is too early
now to plant. There will be nice tulip displays however in front of
the former KGB building as an example and if it go to the city
center I will takes some shots.
By
the way if you want a good workout and come to Moscow go to
http://maps.google.com/
and click on the "get directions" tab then
in the top from box type New York and in the second one type Moscow.
Then in the directions pay attention to step 24 and you will stay
healthy.
That's a full lid for today - Will see you all
during the week.
Check the
current
Earnings Calendar
on all overnight holds.
Check the current
message board also for other good
stock candidates as there are several there right now.
If you use StockTiger mail you can access your account using simply
my.stocktiger.com
If
you would like a free StockTiger.com email address that uses the Google
Gmail interface so you can check your mail from anywhere, (you do not need a
Gmail account) send me (ST) a
personal message from the
message board
Include your First and Last name and the name you want to use. Your address will
then be (your choice)@stocktiger.com
Best regards,
StockTiger.com
We
are about to enter May - the month of flowers.
