Stock Tiger Stalking Stocks™

For Monday January 29, 2007  

Close

Dow -15.54 at 12487.02, Nasdaq +1.25 at 2435.49, S&P -1.71 at 1422.18

 

This sounds like a baseball game. One down, two up and one down. That is how the market behaved this week. In the end about the same. 21 from our watch list hit the buy point so the market is still pretty hot though the picks are getting a bit harder to find.

Microsoft had a good quarter and  CAT said sales to be better in 2007 so no big reason for market to sell off but with bond interest rates up some money is shifting into them. Home sales were up in December while inventories of homes down. This can be taken as good news though if the economy is strong the the Fed will not cut rates. It is too funny to try an explain it that way but the media love it.

In any event, it is pretty clear that the bulls aren't giving up yet and that the bears are still lacking any real vigor. The technical patterns are supportive of a more negative view but the bears still have work to do if they hope to gain some control of this market.

These charts of existing and new home sales do not show any actual big indication of much IMO except the dip in prices in the Autumn has rebounded.

Home Sales.jpg

new home sales.jpg

Here are the sectors with the most gains or losses this week.

sectorsw26.png

Bradley Market turn dates have not coincided lattely to big market moves. There is an unusual situation now with four so close together. January  25, 28, February 2 and February 11. There is no really big solar activity in the forecast for the next two weeks - only January 30 has a high of 25 but a reading of 30 is generally considered as market moving. I read that Since 1887 the Dow has been up 70% of the time in the coming week.

The Dow is in the same situation as it was and up only about 120 points in the last 2 months. The yellow trend was broken and now the short green one is in play but not too significant. The 50-day EMA is the important support now as it also has horizontal support. A break there is the signal of a market correction.

dow2601.png

The S&P 500 gave us a break out on Wednesday but not on increased volume and then gave it up on the next day. Like the Dow its important support is the 50-day.

sp2601.png

The Russell 2000 - yawn, sill in 3 month range. The 50-day EMA is flattening as a result.

rut2601.png

The Nasdaq tried to get back above its break out and railed on Thursday but it held the 50-day so could try again to get back above.

nas2601.png

The BBCOMP however has dropped below the 20-day EMA as this is not an encouraging thing to see. It is so close that it may gat back over as the chart shows that this is an important indicator and a break would suggest a larger correction..

bpcomp2601.png

The NASI also is still going down though the MACD does now show a bit of a turn up.

nasi2601.png

The ratio chart with the Nasdaq to the S&P 500 shows again it is back to support. Generally for a signal of tech getting stronger and therefore the rest of the market, we want to see the Nasdaq take the lead and on this chart the line would then go up.

compspx2601.png

The weekly chart of the top 100 market cap stocks in the Nasdaq shows little change.

ndx2301.png

The NYSE still in long term channel with the 50-day just below the bottom channel line.

nya2601.png

This week did give a break out of the number of stocks on the NYSE trading above their 200-day average. This may be too bullish?

nya2002601.png

Gold moved up for the week and if the Dow was priced in gold instead of the US Dollar we would be in a long term bear market as the stock prices relative to gold prices have gone down. The Dow is up but the buying power of the dollar is so much less.

Chart of Day6.gif

This shows the break out of the gold price this week on this weekly chart. This is bullish for gold but it is not really reflected in the gold stocks.

gold2601.png

The general buy signal for gold stocks would be a crossover of the 50 and 200-day EMA on this chart or a break above the top trend line and you can see that is not the case.

xaugold2601.png

There are some miners that have done well but the sector does not look attractive. These two have similar and pretty good charts but they are fighting the rest of the sector at the moment.

KGC did break above the first horizontal and has held and has another at $13.64.

kgc2601.png

NXG in a very similar situation with the next important resistance at Just under $4.00

nxg2601.png

It was interesting that gold made a move as the US dollar also was going up. The dollar is almost to the trend line resistance and we do not expect a break out yet but later in the year.

usd2601.png

This strengthening dollar fund shows the double resistance ahead and the apex of the triangle suggest that the dollar's move up will end soon. One could then buy the EURO or short the Dollar.

doloorfund.png

Oil made a bounce at the 50% retrace and 200-day EMA. Some more testing and base building would build confidence as a fall to the 62% is possible.

oil2601.png

The 10-day rates broke out as shown so the bond prices continued lower. (the old bonds carry a lower interest rate so the price declines when rates go up)

10year2601.png

This may change though as this 30-year bond yield chart shows that it looks rather extended. If rates then soon pull back the bonds will rally and they may help the market as well.

30year2601.png

 I noticed that over 70% of viewers of the site still use one for of Internet Explorer browsers. This is not quite understandable to me as Firefox is so superior and has tons of really nice plug ins (extensions) that are not available to IE. In Firefox as an example to get to our site you only need to type stocktiger into the  address bar. Firefox is smart enough to send you to our site without any .com a the end or http at the beginning. Just go to getfirefox or click on the icon if one shows here....

Here is the calendar for the week from briefing com Note FOMC on January 31.

calendar29.png

Now some stocks to add to the watch list:

MEE had good volume on Friday and it is trying to trade back above the 50-day. If it can close there it may change its trend.

mee2601.png

LXU needs an increase in volume over $14.50 - $14.80

lxu2601.png

DCTH now very low volume under 100k so caution but this may be a bull flag break out coming and a close over the 50-day on good volume would confirm.

dcth2601.png

TTEC clear cut over $27.00

ttec2601.png

And RTI over $80.35

rti2601.png

TMX riskily here as $29.15 is a shadow top so not really resistance but a quicker trade on a break out or better on a pullback to maybe $28.50 or a bit higher.

tmx2601.png

IEAM has a little level at $8.50 and note the 200-day just over that.

ieam2601.png

TXN has tried two times to break over $31 so maybe third time will be the charm.

txn2601.png

MM a break of $40.50

mm2601.png

MIND may be early. Maybe not enough time has gone by since the big pullback. It has formed a bowl so may need to pullback into a handle to make a cup/handle. However if it does break this line with good volume it is a valid play and increasingly over $13.50.

mind2601.png

For penny players this looked interesting. GTEM

gtem2601.png

AQNT over $26.50 seems about right.

aqnt2601.png

Only a week ago we has a picture of boys playing football but today winter is here at 18 degrees F so better to look at a springtime night shot of the Bolshoi Theater as I have not dared to go outside.

bt

That's a full lid- see you during the week.

 

Check the current Earnings Calendar on all overnight holds.

Check the current  message board also for other good stock candidates as there are several there right now.

If you use StockTiger mail you can access your account using simply my.stocktiger.com

If you would like a free StockTiger.com email address that uses the Google Gmail interface so you can check your mail from anywhere,  (you do not need a Gmail account) send me (ST) a personal message from the message board 

Include your First and Last name and the name you want to use. Your address will then be (your choice)@stocktiger.com

 

The Financial Ad Trader
The Financial Ad Trader