Stock Tiger Update For Monday November 27, 2006

Stock Tiger Update

For Monday November 27, 2006

Close Friday

Dow -46.78 at 12280.17, Nasdaq -5.72 at 2460.26, S&P -5.14 at 1400.95

It was a quiet Friday volume wise but the three indexes above were down for the day. The Dow was off early but had some good dip buying again until later in the day but with a short day in a holiday week nothing much can be made of it. The dollar was down quite a bit so gold gapped up some and gold stocks were the biggest gaining group while retail stocks were weak. Wal-Mart on Saturday said the US same store sales fell a bit compared to a year ago and this is the first monthly same-store drop in 10 years.

The Dow did close down for the week which is unusual. It was a light week so maybe mean nothing but generally the Friday after Thanksgiving closes up. The only way to check on support is for it to drop to support at the trend and then maybe to the horizontal as shown. Seeing the reaction and strength of the dip buyers is a way to judge the market.

I noticed this chart that shows the toll inflation has had as even though the Dow's numbers are higher then they have every been, the buying power of those shares is not. If you invested 6 years ago in the Dow and held then using share-price to purchasing-power you would have a loss.

The only comment on the S&P 500 on this weekly chart is the distance above the 20-day EMA it is now and the RSI over 70 again so urging caution..

The Nasdaq weekly still looks nice and we would not be surprised to see it tag 2500.

The Nasdaq to S&P 500 ratio chart shows pretty strong resistance just overhead - especially after such a steep climb.

The purple dotted lines mark the highs of the MACD and they have come a few weeks before former pullbacks in this indicator and if it holds true again then this also points to a decent pullback to come.

We have been wafting on this BPCOMP to reach its former high from April-May and it has - or just about so could this be a top forming now? We think so.

The Nasdaq 100 to S&P 500 shows the Naz out performing and now right at the trend line. The 50/200 cross is here so will see this week if it shows a top or a real break

Think we showed this chart the other day but some on vacation - the VIX at near record lows so expect some volatility to come back to the market as a lack of it for a while can set it off.

The QQQQ proxy for the Nasdaq 100 pulled back a tiny bit but still a huge V and too vertical - (also with a large V)

The SOX longer term shown as a reference for other charts shown below.

The SOX semi chart is now at resistance and while $500 just above has no technical resistance it may have a psychological one.

Looking at the proxy the SMH the resistance is clear at the $36 area. Note that the 200 and 50-day are touching so a volatile move may come this week.

The SOX to SPX - (Semi - S&P 500) Shows the Semis are holding their own here.

We show the moving average chart under this one so show this as a reference as they made new highs again this week.

The number of stocks on the NYSE now trading above their 200-day averages is at near record highs. On the surface this seems great but remember that even if the economy is doing well that not all companies in the NYSE can happen to be doing so well, so much now must be speculation and "a rising tide lifts all boats" kind of thing. This means it is a risky area now to be aggressive. Keep tighter stops. As you now we prefer to be more aggressive when the readings are low like they were in October last year and in the late summer this year. Then you have some greater upside potential but most people never look at this type of indicator so they wait until al stocks are at their highs and may have doubled then they buy. It is good of course to buy high and sell higher but the higher they go in vertical moves the riskier they get.

The Russell 2000 has a flag on a pole but I do not trust the strength of the pole. We have long term negative divergence in the histogram but mostly note that all the last times when it ran up on a nice tall green candle in one or a couple of days...it always pulled back to strengthen up the support. That way it allows the short term traders to get out and for new stronger hands to buy. The minor consolidation here is valid and it may move higher but it is now a weak base.

VLE weekly - just like looking at it.

Gold moved up above the 50% retrace on Friday but did not stay above it

XAU is hedged gold stocks and this broke a trend line on Friday but not quite the horizontal yet.

HUI Gold Bugs Un hedged gold stocks is at interesting point at a broken tend line from May 2005 as tested from underneath before and at the downtrend line from May 2006 so a break here may be a start of a new run in gold stocks though we have some other indicators to verify if it does break out

Silver has broken above horizontal resistance from September.

There is some recognition for the currency traders that they US may lower interest rates sooner then was expected and the Europe may raise them and this helped to raise the EURO and drop the Dollar.

The Fed prints a lot of money and supply and demand make the more dollars worth less. The government however owes so much that they would rather pay it back in lower worth dollars. This is not in the longer run a good thing. It can for the time help US based international companies as their products are more competitive then outside the USA but it means higher prices for all US residents who purchase imported items. Like most all the clothing you wear and a high percentage of the cars and most of the electronics and computers etc. Some feel that the huge about of money the Fed is pumping into the system will help keep stocks going a while but but this does have a longer term cost.

Hong Kong has become a very Hot IPO market and Europe is heating up also as many companies feel they can get better access to capital and no Sarbanes Oxley. With China and other countries saying they want to diversity more and not hold as many dollars it will be interesting what the Fed does. If they want to fight recession then they need to cut rates but that may weaken debt selling. I just looked the U.S. NATIONAL DEBT CLOCK and it was at $8,616,198,691,841 - that is over eight thousand billion. It says that it goes up $1.91 billion a day. No wonder the voters think it time for a change.

The next chart from The Grandfather Economic Report shows the debt per person jumped about $8,500 in the last 4-6 years now at near $29,000 each.

But to get to the US dollar chart you see the possible support areas but it does not look good for the dollar any time soon. That is likely to help gold and some other commodities though.

The oil fund tried a bounce this week but still under the 200-day and the 50% retrace.

Now it is the shopping season and would like to invite you to use our store. Tiger Shop

All purchases and shipping is handled by Amazon.com so you know the prices are great and you have a broad selection. When you open the page you of course see books on the stock market but all items are available. This page as an example of music players show by entering MP3 in the search box under Electronics. From baby items to gourmet coffee we know you will find the store convenient and it will support our site but with the same low product prices to you. You may also notice on our front page we have unique preview links for books that open a small window on top of the page - very handy for checking descriptions.

You can do a search for an item such as above or browse our categories. Happy shopping!

One of our picks Friday was a pullback buy DVAX. We listed it as a break out or pullback with the buy price on a pullback at support shown or in the gap. Now it will be only a break out play for new buyers.

HMY was one of our plays that gapped above the buy price so again we used the 15-minute rule to make an entry where without such a rule we would have passed on the trade. In the last 2-3 weeks this rule has worked out each time in 5-6 trades. Here first is the daily chart.

We mention again that to use this rule you look at a 5-min chart and make note of (or draw a line if you can) at the high point and the low point of the first three candles then you play it toward the side that breaks. (of course it is good to see what is the readon for the gap and to pay attention to the volume and so forth but that is the basic set up)

HMY (on this 5-min chart) broke above on the 4th candle at $16.47 and at the high was up to $16.71 so not a big move as it was up already but wanted to point it out again as you will see how many time this is very helpful. If you had however held the trade until the end of the end of the day you would be up a penny cents.

ASTFS was another of ours that gaped up on the open. The chart shows it ran up but it was too fast to get in at the break price.

On the 5-min chart you see the buy came at the 7th candle or 35 minutes into the trading day at $10.97 and it closed the day at $11.52. Some cannot trade this type as they cannot watch the market but for those that can it is interesting to check the stocks that are gapping at the open as you have at least 15-minutes to see if any of them look like they are good to trade. We have a link to the Nasdaq Pre-Market moves on the Market Data Page.

PNTR was not one of ours - am only showing the chart for traders. (I am not a fisherman and I thick it seems strange that in fishing magazines they have so many pictures of people you do not know simply holding fish. Fisherman however like to look at ones they did not even catch themselves. Traders can be the same and like to see some stocks they missed as there is always an opportunity tomorrow to catch the big one. This week PNTR closed up 89% Friday but that is minor. It was at $6 on Tuesday and had a high Friday at $25. (earlier this week, the company said it had a third-quarter profit of 14 cents a share, compared with a loss of 14 cents a share, last year) It is not a play for us - only showing the chart.

This week we will probability put up a new poll to see what $ amount range you like to put into an average trade. The share price that is the most popular is between $1-$5 as the percentage did not change since last week. We will look for more in this range but after a big rally they are harder to find as many have gone above the range. We looked at the last 200 trades of ours and added all the prices and divided by 200 and the average was $15.75.

Here are some to add to the watch list for this week.

In metals we now hav SWC palladium as a long term play and HMY gold has broken the trend line Friday so can buy back as it does a retest and keep a stop under the trend line.

TRE also on Friday slightly broke above the trend line and has a golden cross (when the 200-day moves below the 50-day). This one needs to move above $7 and have good volume. We like trend lines. You have some risk of being whipsawed for longer term holds but you can minimize the risk in that by making your trade size smaller and give a bit more wiggle room.

PLM another miner with a trend line not far overhead.

CUP is a copper stock and although it is now below both averages it has a triangle top line at the 50-day so could change quickly if it makes a move over $4.00.

In tech we see IFX with a type of cup and handle. This is a German company so trades on the NYSE as an ADR American Depositary Receipt and that is why you see all the gaps as it opens in the USA after it has been trading in Germany many hours. The break here is at $12.95

IF the semis can keep up the improving action then TSM could break the first level here at $10.50 - look left for another resistance at $10.80

GGP nice high volume on up days and low on down. $53.00

RTN above $50.95

SDRG a miner - not any exact break except for $1.80 but good looking chart for the sector so could buy in stages (buying small positions at various prices) and sell the same way with a hard stop under the lower trend.

BPA above $2.20 may move up to the 200-day

SWKS gapped up on high volume as they announced restructuring plans and job cuts in October. Seems a break out here could take it to the April highs.

HOV is at resistance of the 200-day at $34. Perhaps al the money the Fed is putting into the system will help the housing market for a while.

UPDA was mentioned in the chat room this week I think by Mezz, so for penny lovers here is one to watch for a break as volume has been increasing.

Here is this week economic calendar courtesy briefing.com

That's it for today - have a super week and for the latest complete list of picks check the current list each morning at stocktiger.com and for your holiday shopping browse or search the Tiger/Amazon store

Would appreciate your Vote It can be done each day. (bottom right hand side words (Vote for it!)

Remember to check the Earnings Calendar on all overnight holds

Check the message board also for other good stock candidates as there are several there right now.

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