The Dow
has had a very strong rally though on pretty light volume. It
did close above the 50-day EMA but has the trend line resistance
not too far over head. If it does break out the obvious next
resistance is the top Bollinger band.
Here is a longer term view and if a retest of the lows happens
it may stop this time at the trend line so a place to watch if
it holds.
The transportation index has not done so well in its recovery and is
still under the 200-day EMA and this is not a positive sign.
As you may expect the Japanese Yen came back to fill its gap and that helped
boost the markets. Though what some think is there may be a possibility that new
carry trade positions may go on the short side in the US markets instead of long
and if that happens we would expect to see the Yen - market relationship change
and rises in the yen would create some short covering therefore nullifying some
of the effects or forced selling of long positions.
The SOX has made it back to the resistance but now trapped between the 50
and 200 day EMAs
The Nasdaq did move above the
rather lame trend line but is also above the 50-day and at
resistance as shown.
The Russell 2000 is at the 50-week
EMA and at the moment looks more like it will drop then go up.
The ProFunds short fund as it
has done many times failed to hold above the 50-day EMA however
this time it did close above it for a couple of day and that may
signal a later move to stay above it.
After having such a high
percentage of stocks on the NYSE trading under their 50-day
average last week the rally is a normal thing - however it is
also normal for a test to occur.
Same with the BCOMPQ - a
retest is normally the case after a new low as it was in July -
October of 2002.
The VIX dropped back to
the high end of its more typical range - you see if this
is a going to be a new range the support is at 17.50 to 20 area.
Gold was close enough a week ago to
call it a touch of the 65-week EMA so a rally could come but not
yet any good signs of a lasting move higher.
The US dollar still
trying to build a good base.
The economic calendar from briefing.com
with many possible market movers this week.
NNRF continues in it's nice triangle and is getting
near the likely break out point. NNRF
announced on Monday
that they have made an agreement with Studsvik of
Sweden
Studsvik Home Page
- Studsvik operates in the global nuclear market and provides
qualified services through four strategic business divisions and
to start with they will work with the marketing and manufacture
of NNRF's proprietary shielding materials: FEECOM/BIECOM and
then also focus on the newest derivatives that are being
developed for shielding applications specified by nuclear power
plant managers, hospitals and medical facilities.
This is really excellent news as Studsvik is so well known as
they are engaged in the testing and investigation of nuclear
fuel and materials in nuclear reactors across the globe, and its
codes and services are currently used at more than 200 of the
world's 443 nuclear reactors. In the United States, STUDSVIK's
codes are used at approximately 80% of the nuclear reactors. The
corresponding share in Europe, not including France, is
approximately 50%, and approximately 50% in Japan.
You know how in press releases there is usually a typical note
from one of the company people saying how nice the - whatever -
will be and they are happy to have done the - whatever -
Well in this case it is actually true and
significant what they say ---
Dr. Hans-Jurgen
Engelmann, Director of Shielding & Encapsulation Technologies
for NNRF, stated:
We are confident this will
continue to open international markets to the core group of
proprietary shielding, decommissioning and disposal technologies
of NNRF. We believe further that the exceptional capabilities of
STUDSVIK in areas of decommissioning nuclear waste management
will complement and augment the current capabilities of NNRF to
participate in international projects.
This is
for sure going to help strengthen the recognition of NNRF around
the word and open many doors in a quicker manner than they could
have done it on their own. I am very pleased with this news. And
it comes in the vacation time for Europe.
Some
people have asked about the ROAR spin off and future listing and
it is all proceeding well. Americans take many fewer vacation
days than Europeans. In Russian as an example people get 5 weeks
of vacation and it is typical for people to take a month off in
the summer. I believe Europeans have a similar situation so in
late summer things take a long time as so many are away on a
holiday. By mid September most business should be back to usual
and I believe we will be hearing increasing news after then. You
know that there are still two acquisitions in the works and I
believe a couple more will follow shortly. Each acquisition adds
to the capabilities of the company and greatly increases its
earrings potential.
I am confident that people will look back at
these prices and wish they had purchased more. It is very low
risk as if you are very short term and cannot take any draw
downs the stop would be under the lower trend line.
The volume on the up days has been greater than the down days
and it will not really take too much to get it running once it
moves over the triangle top.
PLTG Filled its gap as has been talked of on the
message board
so no one should have missed it
as it then ran up about 100% as it was so oversold. We mentioned in the
Friday video that it may pullback to the 200-day and it did for a new entry. We
are not sure if the shorts are now finished but the up volume suggests that they
covered a lot. RSI and stochastics of course turned up after the bottom and the
MACD at the moment if just making its bullish crossover and the histogram is
about to go back over the 0 line. The company released a news item about their
2007
earnings forecast. The noted
resistance now is at $0.31 and the 50-day EMA and then the test of the 50 cent
area break out.
CFPC this week has been very low volume as it sits
at its base. The hurricane that hit Jamaica so far has not
seemed to cause any severe loss to the Blue Mountain crop and
the production facility is still in working order. There is an
audio interview
with Robert Barker who is the vice president of coffee quality
for Coffee Pacifica. While we know the company is close to
finalizing one additional country of supply to their current 3
countries, in this interview Mr. Barker says that over the next
three months he is going to Columbia to locate the specific
supply they need to add this country as well. This is exciting
news as the company can sell all it can buy so only additional
supply is needed. We know that this year from Ethiopia there
will be 10 containers and they plan on 50 next year from there.
He mentioned that this year from Papua New Guinea they pan to
ship 50 containers as they are now starting the picking season.
This looks like a very good company with an excellent plan
continuing their "tree-to-cup" program. Revenues still expected
to be about 3X last year then 3X 2008 over 2007. I think it is
totally nuts that there is till a small amount of selling in
this price area.
As you know NPWS did not come out with its prototype in
July or August so we never had a reentry point after the sell at
the break of the 50-day following the good run up. The stock now
however seems to have formed a nice base with very good recent
up volume which in part may have been short covering. I spoke
with the
Chairman of
the Board, Mr. Dan Rosen on Friday and the 10-watt
fuel cell prototype is now scheduled to be finished by September
30. We know the product itself is longer term but the company
now receives income for the development side of the business.
They recently received a $1.4 million contract award from the
Department of Defense as mentioned in their recent news release
on the
second quarter results.
Mr.
Rosen pointed
out that there are at least 3 revenue streams and one of them is
these development awards that are given to pay for the
improvements and refinements of the product and a production
scale up for testing models which will be in the future and both
of these before the production orders so there will be income in
front of any actual orders. Right now
as an investment it is a time
to pay attention to the chart and the volume to be a guide as to
any timing of an entry.
Now additions to our usual
watch list.
INTC A continuation or wait for a higher volume move over
$25.25
IVGN Over $79.50 - note the shadow high
STSI Over $1.04 on high volume as it could
stop there and pull back
NFLD A pullback play if the $1.35 level
holds then a buy but it may also dip to as much as to $1.25 so
watch for the reversal.
ANO Over $3.08 but needs more volume
AT Over $68.10 but careful in the first
half hour of open and would like more volume.
LNDC Over $14.17 but note it has made a
big move in a few days.
EXPE Over $30.00
CRNT Over $18.20
HRT At trend line - if continued good
volume near here or over horizontal line at $14.33
BAY Over $78.85 - foreign - so gaps often
NOK Over $31.00 foreign - so gaps often
FEEC Over $1.38 but on a pullback also with a stop under bottom line at
the 200-day
Every two years Moscow hosts a large
international air show and there is a huge display of all types
of aircraft from around the word and many large pavilions with
any product related to planes or missiles, bombs etc. It is a 6
day event but for the public mostly a Friday - Sunday one and
about 500,000 go to it in those days. There are of course tons
of barbeque restaurants set up and much beer and
kvas
and just the size of the event makes it exciting.
There are demonstration flights from noon until 5PM where you
see some amazing planes and piloting skills. This year in many
of the planes they had cameras inside the cockpit showing the
pilot's face and it was shown on a very large screen. I
particularly like the super powerful fighter jets as the sound
alone as they zoom over your head takes your breath away for a
moment and this feeling can only be experienced in person. I
also like one of the Russian fighters that can go almost
straight up then the pilot controls the thrust so well that the
plane, still pointing skyward, just stands still as suspended in
mid air. Quite a sight.
There were many acrobatic teams and one of
the favorites is the French team, "Patrouille de France" They
put on a 30 minute show with 8 planes and some incredible
maneuvers. One of them is for 6 planes to head toward you then
run up to make a high arch forming the top of a giant heart and
then come down making the rest of it and the music is an
appropriate emotional piece. As they are finishing another plane
comes in from the top left of the heart and draws the arrow
through it. It may not sound like much but this gigantic
precision design against the blue sky - well there were
really not many dry eyes of those who were watching it.
Here is a more tradition maneuver as they
break out of a tight formation.
I have been to this air show many times over the years and each
year it improves. It is on a testing airfield about 40
kilometers outside Moscow and it is best to take the train there
where they have busses to take you to the airfield. Beside the
regular trains this year they took one or two of the express
trains and painted and outfitted them especially for the show.
The Shows name is
MAKS so on the
train it says MAKS EXPRESS.
This is the first I had seen this train and the windows from the
outside do now show as they look painted over but from the
inside they look normal. The inside also has the air show theme.
I just thought it was pretty cool to have an entire train inside
and out decorated for this event. Heck - when I first came to
Russia even a normal newly painted train was noticed - this one
is even air conditioned!
That's a full lid for today - will see you all
during the week.
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