Stock Tiger Stalking Stocks™ For Monday November 26, 2007  You may subscribe to this newsletter free - subscribe Close Friday Dow +181.43 at 12980.88, Nasdaq +34.45 at 2596.60, S&P +23.92 at 1440.69   Attention Shoppers. The shopping season started with a nice rally but was after a pullback so the markets ended lower for the week. The S&P 500 is still positive for the year. Many think that the Friday rebound was only due to the oversold condition of the few days before so have not noticed the support areas we will show below. It seems more likely that we have or shortly will be setting up for a stronger rally into the new year that could give us new highs in some indexes. This may sound odd as the economy seems to be weakening, we have underreported unemployment numbers and underreported inflation and we suppose underreported banking problems. Meanwhile the Fed has been adding liquidity to the market hand over fist. However there is a saying about getting bullish quickly but taking time to become bearish. The Japanese Yen has the carry traders scrambling to unwind as it has gapped up many times and it due to pullback. While the US dollar has declined all the foreign investors have been losing money as if they sell they can buy less of their own currency. When the dollar does finally start its move back up they will have the opposite incentive to buy US stocks. As the dollar becomes stronger they can use less of them to buy more of their own currency so if US stocks rise they make more dollars and then increase their profit in conversion as well. In Russia as an example I receive only 24 Rubles for a dollar but 36 for a Euro. I have mostly dollars so this has been an unwelcome decline over the lat 4-5 years. When this reverses though it will be nice to see the dollar being able to buy more Rubles each month so I will be happy to be "in dollars". This will be the case in most countries and the US market at that point could be attractive just for that reason. In dollar terms at least the price of oil will decline and although in the past the markets have gone up in tandem with oil there may be a change and the markets may like a decline in oil prices. The weak US dollar has greatly increased sales of US goods overseas and this helps mutli-nationals and therefore the US trade deficit and this will likely be taken as good news. We will show below a few example of the possible start of a turn back up for stocks but at the same time it is not yet show in individual charts. At the end of winter or early spring we had a time similar to now. We know about how many charts we need to look at to find good setups to trade. In the period for months ago we suddenly had a 2 week period where it was extremely hard to find any good set ups with low risk to trade short or long. I mean that maybe one out of 800 charts gave one good set up. It was dismal. But then the market changed and we started having 5-10 triggered trades per day for a while as charts set up. Right now it again is very hard to find good risk/reward trades and we do not imagine that this can last too long but it is the fly in  the ointment at the moment. The futures of course continue to provide excellent risk/reward opportunities with the high market volatility if you wait for the setups. On the Friday morning audio update the Dow had already moved to the 50-period EMA on the 15-min chart so we saw the buy being at 12920 or 12924 and either one gave a nice gain. The Dow e-mini pays $5 per point per contract and at some brokers it ties up only $500 so even the 56-60 point gain was a 50% profit on your money. If you do not receive audio update alerts just send a note and we will add you to the list. The Monday video on the home page talks of any set ups for Monday. We liked the Russell better for an e-mini trade on Friday and suggested a buy over 750 resistance. That would have given you up to 9 points in profit and as this contracts pays $100 per point you would have make up top $900 on each $500 invested.   This is how the major averages performed for the week. And the top and bottom sectors:   The chart of the day folks point out a possible channel bottom with the green dotted line but if you extend the lower red dotted line you could see that not much of a rally would take it back over that line also.   The Dow pulled back to three significant areas yet no where did  I see this talked of in the media. It hit the trend line in pink, the 12795 support from the February high and this was also the 62% retrace for the rally since March so a totally rational and normal place to rally. It may again need to test the low or even break it intraday but so far this is a quite normal retracement in a bull market. The end of month window dressing may start later this week. The Nasdaq in the short term is not as nice a chart IMO but it did close Friday above the top channel line on this weekly chart and also above the 50-week EMA. The stochastics however are still pointing down. We look at the SOX semiconductor index as when this finally starts to move back up it should spark the Nasdaq. The bounce level hit on Thursday maybe be a low or it may test the July 2006 low but we are paying attention to it  for a sign of reversal. Some base building would be nice. Here is a weekly SOX view showing the trend line support and a horizontal one below. Watch  the stochastics. The bullish percent index for he Nasdaq shows how it made new lows not seen since 2002 and while the is not the best exact timing indicator it surely points out tthe overly bearish condition of the Nasdaq. I have not drawn the line on the weekly S&P 500 chart you can see that is at what was support for several weeks in the early summer. It is below the 50-week EMA which is bearish but it has done this many times in the past few years and recovered very well. The NYSE also bounced from its 62% Fibonacci line from the run up since the August low. This line does not have the weight or significance that a longer term one would have but it still a very valid place to rally. It of course has to get back over the 200-day EMA. The percentage of NYSE stocks over their 50-day average has also now dropped below our lower line and a point from which we have seen significant rallies in the past. The transportation index is not now in good shape so this gives a caution as there is not really any good support nearby if it breaks lower.   The Russell 2000 weekly touched the general support area from the summer of 2006 and was briefly under the lower Bollinger band. I do not like them when they are between major averages as it is here between the 50 and 200-week but the strong rally from the July 2006 low was also in the same situation. With this index now back down to where it was  over a year ago this one could make significant gains again if we so start an extended rally. Here is a longer term view showing why this level is important. The stochastics have not gone under 20 and wish they had so perhaps it could break lower to the 200-week at 700. In each of the cases shown where the stochastics did go under 20 the rally afterwards was excellent. The Value Line weekly also in the past has several times made a double bottom on the stochastics and could do so again. So all of these charts hint to a rally to come but even though we should be ready for it soon - it may also require one more pullback. Here is the Japanese Yen showing the multiple gap up days and as it eventually pulls back the US markets should rally. The US dollar the chart in this timeframe gives not a clue but one of these days we for sure will be showing the bottom...after all the US does have a strong dollar policy.... Gold continued its move back up from the successful test of the support. Stochastics is late and they have yet to show a buy alone. This is still very much above the EMA shown and while more people in China and India can now afford to buy gold jewelry this move is more related to speculation than reality so we remain cautious. Gold stocks also do not share in the extended move. Our stochastics buy and sell signals have worked for at least short term moves over the years but just keep your stops in place. The economic calendar from briefing.com Notes on some longer term stocks. NNRI  Weekly closed up over 8% after again successfully testing its support. Please send any questions you have for management as I will then soon put up the page of answers. the trend line is not ay about $2.20 on the daily chart so once it is over that level we expect volume to pick back up. This week had decent volume and stilll shows very good positive divergence on the histogram. Pyramid Petroleum - PYR or PVR.V on the Canadian TSX Venture exchange and on Yahoo you use PVR.V.  Not to be confused with the PYR Energy. Note that the company is now working on being listed on the Toronto exchange and we hope in January as this will be easier for many to trade and will help to increase volume. We have not spoken of Pyramid Petrolium in a while as we were originally waiting on the planned merger with Capco. This was taking a while as they raised money and then they decided instead to purchase the Capco Gulf of Mexico interests outright and not merge. This now should be completed in December.  One great thing about this is that Pyramid  issued no shares to make this purchase as their high production is enough to fund the repayment of the loan. You should refer to our updated page on Pyramid. The main point is that Pyramid is an oil and gas producing company that after the finalizing of the Capco property purchase will have a production of 2,000 barrel equivalent per day of oil. (The gulf of Mexico off shore platforms have about 80% oil to 20% natural gas) 2,000 barrels per day at current $95 is about $5.7 million per month. But I prefer to used hedged prices. If Pyramid were to hedge today for say 5-years they could lock in about an $85 price. Of this I figure they need to spend about $25 for production, delivery costs and for royalties. This leaves $60 or $120k /day and $3.6 million / month. They have about $42 million in debt now and repayment will be accelerated in the next year to increase profit in the out years. I do not know the payments but per year about $3.4 million would be interest and lets use 70% payment or about $30M next year or a total payment of $2.8 million per month. So an income per month of $3.6 million minus $2.8 million leaves $800k a month minus about $175k in general operating expenses or $625,000 profit a month = $7.5 million a year divided by 40 million shares equals $0.18 in profit before taxes. As an exploration company I believe they have a significant tax credit built up and think that the next year will actually show a greater EPS than we suggest here. The company is about due for a quarterly report and it may already show a profit. The short term negatives are it is on the TSE Venture exchange that all cannot trade on and it currently has very low volume. I have mentioned the plan to list on Toronto exchange but I also believe that the volume will pick up significantly once profitability is seen. There are really tons of small oil/gas stocks on the Canadian exchanged but most are only exploring companies while Pyramid has approximately 125 producing well wells. We suggested to the company that they produce a video over the coming months to show us some of their platforms in the Gulf of Mexico so it is obvious to the investors the significant operations hey have going right now. PLTG is still in the same very tight range and has excellent fundamentals. As the wells come online and the income is reported I think the movement will be substantial and more rapid once the figures are with the SEC. CNGJ  Canam energy is a Uranium exploration stock we had as a break out play that hit our stop so that particular play did not work. Now that it has pulled back significantly I know many are buying some as an oversold play and one they want to own before the SEC filing of the 43-101 in December. CFPC has has some expected profit taking after the filing of the 10-Q and one of the next normally anticipated runs would be on further news of starting to open coffee shops in China. Additions to our watch list. PTRY  Over $28.40 CRM  Over $57.53 - $58.00 AOC  Over $48.50 BOOM  At least a scalp over $58.13. This one can move several points in a good run. ACLI  Into the gap at $15.32 VRTX  Short under $22.92 - ODP  Short under $16.50 - may also be a reversal but too small a volume Friday to tell MNST  Short under $32.37 ABK  Short under I would try under $22.50 tight stop then $20.40 - gapped up on Friday but light day so may still be in play WEC  Over $48.20 - resistance about a buck higher Photos today by: Melanie Kipp  http://www.caughtintimephotography.com/ First two are using infrared film That's a full lid for today - will see you all during the week. We have published a donation page for the ease of you giving to a charity of your choice. If you have benefited from our site we encourage you to share with a charity. We have a few recommendations who all use a high percentage of the donations for the actual program use. If you have some we should add please send us a note. Donation Page Check the Earnings Calendar on all overnight holds. Check the current message board also for other good stock candidates as there are several there right now. If you use StockTiger mail you can access your account using simply my.stocktiger.com You can also access your mail using your Blackberry. If you would like a free StockTiger.com email address that uses the Google Gmail interface so you can check your mail from anywhere,  (you do not need a Gmail account) send me (ST) a personal message from the message board  Include your First and Last name and the name you want to use. Your address will then be (your choice)@stocktiger.com Best regards, StockTiger.com

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