Stock Tiger Stalking Stocks™

For Monday March 26, 2007  

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Dow +19.87 at 12481.01, Nasdaq +4.44 at 2456.18, S&P +1.57 at 1436.11

Nice market rebound this week but before we get to that some words about our long term buy NUCON-RF NNRF. As the past week has been a strong one for the stock we wanted to say a bit more about the company.

We first started writing about the company after going to their office here is Moscow. We were more aggressive in our suggestion when the March 13 news came out and since then the stock has more than doubled on much higher volume. Almost all of our watch list stocks are break out or pullback plays where we really would like them to run up hard and fast so it feels funny to want the stock instead to pull back. On the technical side you can see it is totally above the top Bollinger band and momentum can keep a stock gong for a while but at some point when they run above and have RSI above 70 and stochastics above 80 then need to pull back or at the least consolidate long enough for the Bollinger bands to "catch up".  We hope this week to see consolidation and you see the chart shows the top B band at $1.31 so if it does pullback it would be a great spot.

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We bought FRPT many times for shorter term plays in the last year. When FRPT was a penny stock I remember looking at their web site and seeing the vehicles they were putting armor on but did not do much investigation and it would have been a great one to hold long term. They were getting some government contracts at first to test and that should have been a big alert to pay attention. Note how FRPT also ran from 69 cents to $1.50 or so then pulled back and after a move to $2 consolidated for a few months. Would love to see the same with NNRF as that builds  a very strong stock chart. Yahoo shows that FRPT so far reported sales of only $169 million and on 67 million shares ran to $24. Similar situations seem to be the future for  NNRF.

frpt

Now a bit more extended overview of NNRF. This is on the Special Situations page also.

NUCON-RF is a U.S. corporation with a business model focused on the global marketplace.  The Company has executive offices in Washington, Berlin and Moscow.  NUCON-RF provides products and technical and engineering support for the nuclear power industry and is currently addressing environmental and power quality solutions for the governments of Germany, Russia, CIS and multilateral institutions, including the G-8 and the European Bank of Reconstruction and Development.  The Company has extensive in-house expertise in all aspects of radiological protection and radioactive waste management. The Company’s Chief Executive Officer formerly served as Russia's Deputy Nuclear Power Minister and its Chairman of the Board formerly served as Vice Chairman of Prudential Mutual Fund Management and Executive Vice President with W.R. Grace & Co. The Company’s exceptional leadership has uniquely positioned it as a significant player in the provision of solutions to the Russian, CIS, European Union and Asian markets.

The Company has three separate and complementary profit centers:

ONE -  MANUFACTURING

Manufacturing of equipment for nuclear power plants. The Company recently completed the purchase of 50% of the St. Petersburg, Russia design and manufacturing company, ZAO ELECTRO MACHINERY BUILDING PLANT ATOLL (ATOLL).

ATOLL, with more than 200 employees, manufactures parts and equipment for nuclear power plants in Russia, China, Bulgaria and other nations.

ATOLL had 2006 revenue of $43,137,000 and is expected to realize revenue of $120 million and pre-tax profit of $22.2 million in fiscal 2007.

NUCON-RF owns 50% of ATOLL, the maximum permitted under Russian law. NUCON-RF's participation in ATOLL's profits shall be received in the form of quarterly cash dividends from ATOLL.

NUCON-RF is currently in negotiations on other possible key acquisitions.

TWO -  NUCLEAR REMEDIATION

NUCON-RF is involved in International nuclear decommissioning and remediation projects.

The following is a list of some of the key projects:

NUCON-RF and ATOMSTROYEXPORT (ASE) have an agreement whereby NUCON-RF will become the project partner and supplier to ASE of technologies and services in the Chernobyl Shelter Implementation Plan funded by the G-8 and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. NUCON-RF has an agreement with the Department of Nuclear Sites Decommissioning of the Federal Agency of Nuclear Energy of the Russian Federation to supply nuclear safety technologies, products and equipment for Russian and G-8 funded nuclear waste decontamination projects.

The most urgent decontamination project is Andreyeva Bay, Building No.5, a highly contaminated former radioactive waste storage site undergoing decommissioning.

The total project, which is estimated to last until 2012 and perhaps beyond, will cost $4 billion and $2 billion of this amount will be funded under a G-8 funded decommissioning plan. Approximately $438.5 million of the $2 billion in working contracts have been concluded to date.

NUCON-RF previously announced a letter of intent with the International Center of Environmental Security (ICES) of the Ministry of Nuclear Energy of Russia to supply nuclear safety technologies, products and equipment for a major international decommissioning project in Northwestern Russia.

THREE – PROPRIETARY TECHNOLOGIES 

NUCON-RF has several proprietary technologies that have positioned the Company for multiple international projects. 

NUCON-RF holds an exclusive license for NuCap™ in the Russian Federation and other CIS Countries. NuCap™ is a silicon-geopolymer material that stabilizes, encapsulates and stores nuclear waste for up to 170 years. It will be used on many of the cleanup sites. 

NUCON-RF also owns a proprietary, moldable, non-toxic polymer-based nuclear energy shielding material known as FEECOM/BIECOM. FEECOM/BIECOM can be utilized in lieu of lead shielding. In the European Union, the use of lead will be banned as of 2010 for use in nuclear energy projects. NUCON-RF is in negotiations to establish its own European manufacturing facility for FEECOM/BIECOM as it anticipates strong demand for this product. 

NUCON-RF has a license for distribution in the Russian Federation for equipment that eliminates the power surges and high frequency noise adversely affecting industrial, commercial and residential facilities, thereby preventing serious damage to sensitive digital equipment housed in such facilities. The equipment is manufactured by Nevada-based Environmental Potentials (EP). NUCON-RF has received an exclusive mandate to market this equipment in the Republic of Tatarstan and the total revenue to NUCON-RF in one of the first projects there for Sun City could approach $50 to $100 million. NUCON-RF is further endeavoring to obtain government mandates and sales/installation partnerships within other Russian Republics. These agreements may also produce substantial company revenue. 
 

NUCON-RF has formed a wholly-owned Russia-based subsidiary, NUCON-RUS, a company focused on the marketing, sales and installation of the foregoing technologies.

We will write more as time passes as we expect this to be an exception stock and one o can hold long term to qualify for long term capital gains ans save a lot on taxes.

On another note:

If you have not noticed, on the home page we have links to the daily audio broadcasts from Icecoldstocks. They have our daily break out videos on their site and we wanted to share their audio updates. Most are updated before the market opens and usually also have updates during the market days.

You can bookmark these links.

Ice Man  This is market conditions and general trades that look interesting or have events that are driving them. Usually updated 2-3 time a day

Dollar Man Suggestions for stocks under $5.00 Updated as new opportunities arise.

Special Situations  Stocks that have some underlying reason to buy and most are longer term holds.

Swing Man This is a more detailed market summary and some longer term sector or stock suggestions.

Investor's Health This is a series of very useful health information.

If you wish to be on a list to be notified as these audios are updated then you only need to send a note to audioupdate@stocktiger.com

Was a good market week for the bulls and Friday it was learned that home sales rose 3.9% in February to an annual rate of 6.69 million up from 6.44 million in January; economists were forecasting a 2.2% drop. Maybe as the home prices have dropped some think it is a bargain so decided to buy. Much like how some buy the first dip in the stock market. I think the housing recovery will take a long time. I read that last year there were about 400,000 foreclosures and it is expected that the number in 2007 will be at least 800,000. Those homes will be sold so they will take the place of new homes. Still though a lot of homes are being sold now.

The total housing inventories rose 2.9% at the end of January to 3.55 million existing homes available for sales, representing a 6.6-month supply at the current sales pace. The nationwide median existing home price was $210,600 in January, down 3.1% from the year-ago period (RTTNews)

home sales2303.jpg

Love the headlines for the week - The S&P 500 surged 3.5%, logging its best performance in four years! Guess we can thank shorts for a lot of that. It was interesting that after the market fell to support and the Inverse Proshares funds got to resistance I received many letters from people who seemed very hot to buy these short funds instead of wanting to buy the long ones. Shorts have been waiting almost 4 years and they get excited on each pullback. I think when the bull market ends there will be ample signals and it will not be short lived so plenty of time to enter those type of funds at that time.

The gains this week were on lower volume than the drop and even though it is the end of the month and quarter, so we may see some window dressing, the markets will have a lot of work to make the new highs and we expect they may pullback again before doing it.

Here are the top up and down sectors for the week.

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And all the indexes in the green.  (shown though n many colors)

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The Dow Jones Word Stock Index - not sure if this will qualify as a W bottom but if it does and you missed the bottom buy - it would now need to pullback to the W center and bounce - (about the 50-day EMA) and that would be the buy point. Notice how as usual the RSI dropped below the 30 line and the buy was a cross above.

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The DOW has now been back above the 50-day for 3 sessions and if it does not go into another pullback below this week we will expect the break out over the horizontal resistance but would be surprised if it could close above the trend line located above it.

indu2303lt.png

On the shorter term chart we see it is now recovered 62% of the drop and closed right there. Right now it is only an interesting visual that the green trend line is meeting the top horizontal resistance. In charting you notice a lot of things and often have to wait to see if they can show some meaning a bit later or sometimes someone else points the meaning out.

dow2303.png

On the weekly Nasdaq chart the bounce was perfect with stochastics bouncing from under 20 and the stock bouncing from the 50-week EMA and the thin gray trend line. This chart is pretty positive and if we have a low retest this one suggests it will not be a lower low.

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The BPCOMP that had us a little worried as when it has dropped below the 20-day EMA in the recent past it stayed there for several months, this may soon cross back over. Watching.

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QQQQ Nasdaq 100 proxy - it got to the little gap but what is interesting is the drop in volume on the pullback so you could watch and play like a break out pick though it generally moves too slowly.

qqqq

NYSE similar looking to the DOW but the trend line is not so far away and a usual place for a short after a big drop is a test of the broken trend line from underneath.

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Amazing how quickly the number of stocks on the NYSE above their 50-day is coming back up. Shows how strong the market is now in the intermediate term anyway.

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Commodities CRB still not able to get above the Fibonacci 38%.

 crb2303.png

GOLD still nowhere but getting nearer over bought again even with the drop at the end of the week. Gold it seems is in a long term bull market that may last 10 years or more. Stocks may end their run this year. Maybe at that time gold will decouple from the general market and get going again.

gold

On the VLE that red monthly candle is now green again so good luck this week for it.

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The weekly economic calendar from briefing com

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Some additions for the watch list.

CHRD  as you see looking for a break out over $10. If you look at the longer term chart you will see resistance at about $11.35 so a good volume break may get there in time. $10 does have a psychological barrier also so often can retest that level after a break.

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PGI  Nice volume on the latest move so a break again is likely soon.

pgi2303.png

JEC   Consolidating a bit so watch for the break. 

jec2303.png

GBVS  Had some good volume up days and moved to the trend on lower volume pull back so a pullback play in the lines shown with stop under.

gbvs2303.png

GILD   over $75 but note the gap below so if it breaks out keep close stop.

gild2303.png

CTDC   This is a bearish chart but the stock has a history of big moves on high volume so worth setting an alert if it can break resistance.

ctdc2303.png

AKS  Steel has been strong and this would bo over $23.82.

aks2303.png

ADCT   Not a very bullish chart but will at least try a scalp over $17.00 and it may turn into one.

adct2303.png

ELON hard to say a buy price but you can decide. A pretty low volume stock.

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TPX though a good volume stock and likely break out.

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HTCH has a level at $23.70 and notice that the moving averages are about to meet and maybe cross which would be bullish.

htch2303.png

SFD - $29.80

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PHD also low volume but nice chart and break at $19.70. Make smaller position.

phd2303.png

IMMU good set up over $5.17

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CPST could be starting something again - maybe not but back above the 50-day. A pull back to the 50-day would be nice.

cpst2303.png

LNET also under 200k volume - over $28.50 would be a clean break.

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SONS maybe on the next try.

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What a candle on CSX on Friday! - and volume 12 million. $42.40 to clear.

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UNP Over $105 maybe be good to go?

unp2303.png

Last week I showed a picture of the Kremlin that I shot from a bridge over the Moscow river. This is a shot from a beautiful book that shows a view from the Kremlin to that bridge.

The gold topped church on the other side of the bridge is the Cathedral of Christ the Savior and was completed several years few years ago. There was a church on the site in 1839 but it was torn down in 1933 to build other buildings that never happened and instead they build an amazing swimming pool there. But after the fall of the Soviet Union they decide to put a church there again as a symbol of Russia's spiritual revival after the long years of atheistic Communist rule. I and most I know think the swimming pool (the world's largest open-air swimming pool, where the water was kept at 27 C even in the depths of the Russian winter) should have stayed. It was an amazing thing to see.

From the book  Moscow Kremlin by the photographer Nikolai Rahmanov.

 kc

This from the same book is the Archangel Cathedral built from 1505 -1508. Also inside the Kremlin.

kc

There is a new TV series named The Riches and I am not sure why this is true but so far it is an excellent show. If you have not seen it you can download the first two episodes at http://www.mininova.org our your favorite torrent site. The EZTV versions are recommended.

That's a full lid for today. Will see you all during the week.

Check the current Earnings Calendar on all overnight holds.

Check the current  message board also for other good stock candidates as there are several there right now.

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The Financial Ad Trader
The Financial Ad Trader