The Ultra Short small cap fund closed over the 50-week EMA for the
first time since 2003. Its stochastics are again over 80 for it may pullback one
again but this little break above the 50-week does alert us that a bear could
also be near.
The dip of the yield curve back
under 10 (inverted) did not last long and with the pumped in
liquidity and the rate cut it has run back up strongly.
The BPCOMPQ Bullish Percent Index dropped toward 2002 levels. We do need
to see this get back over the line also for the bull to come back.
And the percent of stocks in the
NYSE trading above their 50-day EMA also at lows not seen since
2002. On this also we want to see it get back into the usual range.
Gold came very close to
the 65-week EMA which has been support form many years as seen on
the weekly chart.
The gold daily charts shows the weakness but as it is
at the 200-day a bounce may show this week. I reviewed many gold
stock charts and many look oversold so could be played for a bounce
but I saw none with decent looking longer term set ups.
Oil also was weak closing
back at its 50-day EMA with stochastics though tuning back up
slightly.
The US dollar still forming a base. - forgot to draw in the trend
extension but you see it is close.
During the Dows drop the DXD Ultra Short ran right to its
$57.60 resistance and has pulled back to under the 200-day EMA. At
the moment I do not see an advantage to one side of the other for
the shorter term on which way this may go so maybe better to use it
on a daily hedge basis.
The economic calendar form briefing.com
A couple of our story stocks
This week NNRF announced the commencement of FEECOM and
BIECOM sales to begin soon. These are two of the proprietary shielding materials
owned by NNRF. They completed the German testing and certification of the
products and the creation of a manufacturing production facility in Germany and
preparation of technical manuals for the field installations of the materials
will begin. The molds necessary to start manufacturing have been fabricated and
the equipment and raw materials ordered. In Germany alone there are 17 nuclear
utilities with 1,615 metric tons of lead that will need replacing. The
certification in Germany is generally accepted in the EU and other countries.
There are currently over 420 nuclear power plants in in 30 countries so a very
large market where these products may be used. France alone has over 50 reactors
as it receives over 70% of its energy from nuclear power. The ballpark sales
price range for BIECOM is $24 to $33 per kilogram. The
company said that they are also in contract discussions with other
utility holding companies in Western Europe and South Korea. This is excellent
and very significant news.
The market liked the news from NNRF and the stock after touching its little
trend line ran up again on increasing volume to the 200-day EMA. Stochastics are
about to cross back over 20 and this generally means a good move up to follow.
We are now much nearer actual contracts from outside of Russia and this will put
an end to any skepticism as international orders come in. The successful retest
of the recent low along with this important news seems now to signal the end of
the pullback that began in April. This has now been on the
SHO list for 67 days. This is the
list of stocks that have illegal short sales as they have not delivered any
stock certificate. At some point these shorts will start covering and it will
become obvious as the volume increases and the price moves rapidly. I would
expect us to begin seeing this once the yellow trend line is broken to the up
side over $5.00. By this point the momentum and returned interest will be
obvious. This is the third time in the last month the stock is at the 200-day
and a move back over it may be the last time for a long time as the stock
returns to its long term up trend. To even tests its April high represents a
nice 300% gain from here.
CFPC made a nice triple bottom this week and the quarterly earning are
out. The next quarter's will start to reflect the increased growth as the
company only books revenues when they receive payments, not when they sell. The
shipping season for Ethiopia has begun and PNG has started also. There is a new
interview with a
Jamaican farmer
Errol
Gillespie which talks of the Blue Mountain coffee
and why the CFPC "Tree to Cup" business plan will help increase profits
for the farmers and thereby increase the supply to CFPC.
There is currently a hurricane in the area of Jamaica and this could damage the
crop as it has done in the past. Because the Jamaican Blue Mountain coffee is so
sought after, if the crop is damaged, the prices will rise rapidly. I noted that
in 2005 when some of the crop was damaged the prices to this coffee in Japan
where is it extremely popular went as high as $60 per pound. Any decrease in
supply if damage does happen will likely be made up with in higher prices as
this is such a sought after coffee.
A meeting of shareholders of Coffee Pacifica will be held on September 05, 2007,
at 11:00 a.m. local time, at the MGM Grand Hotel & Casino in Las Vegas.
The chart shows the accumulation and the next little trend break over about
$0.85
A note on
PLTG. The stock became
heavily shorted and we would like to see this end and the chart set
up before entering. However the stock did fill an open gap on Friday
and had increased volume and a possible turn-around candle. The RSI
and stochastics or MACD have not yet confirmed this but while we do
not like to fight with shorts - this may be a compelling price with
tight stops as the company is drilling both oil and natural gas
wells and is only a couple of months away from receiving revenues
from these wells.
New
additions to our watch list:
ODSY
Short under $9.97
TZIX Short
under $16.00
TNL Over $29.14
RSTI Over $73.20
PNY Over $27.25 or $27.50
TSFG Over $24.17
KIM Back over $42.55 200-day EMA
WFT Over $60.00 but for traders maybe
back over $54.40 50-day EMA - higher risk
TJX Over $30.23
TRCA Over $7.20 ($7.43 shadow)
FNM Over $69.00 ($69.90 shadow)
The following two photographs
are from
Pete Turner
Doorways and Stairs -- Cloud World
That's a full lid for today - will see you all
during the week.
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