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Stock Tiger Stalking Stocks™
For Monday April 16, 2007
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Dow +59.17 at
12612.13, Nasdaq +11.62 at 2491.94, S&P
+5.05 at 1452.85
Was a good week for the markets as the broad ones like the
NYSE and Value Line hit all time highs. The Fed minutes earlier
in the week seemed to cause a stir as the wording shows that the
inflation concern is high so not ruling out further rate
increases. The Friday PPI report showed un changed results so at
first seemed to help the market but there is rising energy and
food so actually inflation is not necessarily under control.
Having nothing to do with inflation but what
in the USA has been something associated with riches I noticed in
the airport in Moscow this caviar
 vending
machine. Salmon Caviar. Years ago I was
in the hospital
for a while for treating pneumonia and at lunch
it was not
uncommon with the soup course to have bread, butter
and caviar as associated with good source of protein and good for
health. The prices in this machine are from $3.25 for a 55 gram jar
to $23 for a 350 gram jar.
Also on Friday a report was showing that
consumer sentiment is decreasing and that one-year inflation
expectations are the highest they have been in many months.
There is so much liquidity in the world still that the money has
to go somewhere and it still seems that stocks are one favored
place. CSCO helped the Nasdaq later in the day when its Chief
Development Officer said the company is at the "high end" of sales
forecasts and is in the "early phases" of an upgrade cycle.
Here are the indexes and all up this week.
The hottest sectors this week -
railroads and the others shown here.
For our special situation
stocks last week we mentioned that SDVC's merger had not yet
been completed and we then found that it may be yet more months
until it is. This limits some institutional buying and even though
the stock may get a boost or more toward the end of April on the
Chicago show promotion it is hard to know. It would be much better
to have the official merger finished. Each week thousands of people
see the StockTiger site for the first time so to avoid confusion we
took the SDVC information off the special situation's page until
they finalize the merger. Nothing has changed with the company but
hard to time them exactly. You may recall that with NNRF we first
bought it last September at $1.40 and sat through the low volume
pullback that took several months so will try to avoid that here.
Speaking of which NNRF
had another great week going up over $1.50 and 52% from last week's
close. It had a run Monday then consolidated until Friday morning
when it dropped to oversold area and rallied back up. We expect we
may see some news released this week as the company representatives
have been in London for meetings. We of course know of several
strategic partnerships and agreements the company has with some of
the highest level companies in the nuclear field in Russian and its
involvement in the nuclear remediation projects that await the
awarding of contracts. We also know the company is looking for a
production facility for its nuclear shielding material and expect
that technology and product to be a really successful revenue
stream. However, if we do a back of the napkin calculation of only a
couple of the current income streams we see how the stock price is
very low. They own 50% of ATOLL with already announced
expected profits of $22 million (for NNRF $11 million) and they will
own about 38% of the new acquisitions with profits to grow to about
$11 million if they have similar margins to ATOLL. This would be
$4.2 million to NNRF. Total of the two is $15.2 million on 35
million shares is $0.43 so now trading at a forward PE of 10. The
areas of the much larger income is not yet even entered into this
estimate so there is a huge upside potential. I think the current
fair price could carry instead a PE of 20-25 or a price of $8-$11
before any new contracts are announced. This pullback was needed and
helpful as it brought the stock back under the top Bollinger band to
leave room for gains ahead. I expect news from the company this
week.
Our new addition to special situations is
Coffee Pacifica Inc. If you did not read
the special mailing on this one it is
here. We also
strongly recommend that you watch the excellent video on the
company website Papua New
Guinea Coffee Growers
What they have done in a short time is remarkable
starting with a few growers to now include about 123,000 in two
countries. In the video you see how they have formed and or
worked with cooperatives to provide education and a means for
increased earnings for the farmers and health care and the
cooperative actually has stock in the company. This formula can
be used in any coffee producing country and we are sure that
Coffee Pacifica is working on that.
Blue Mountain coffee is well
known all over the world and Coffee Pacifica now controls about 30%
of the production and plans to increase the total amount. Last year
this company had large one time expenses to set up the distribution
of the Jamaican coffee and this year are running in a profitable
regime. The increase in the total sales is remarkable and we would
not be surprised to soon see very positive news. When the prices are
low, stocks like CFPC like NNRF can be lifestyle
changers when you buy them low as the percentage gains can be so
high. The main break out will be about a 100% move up from here so
very good for the longer term.
Another Special Situation stock
we put on hold is GRSR as they have yet to file the year end
results and did not complete any arrangements yet for a USA
production facility. We would rather our money be working and not
sitting so will now wait to move back to GRSR when they come out
with some good news. They did not do what they said they would do
but the great advantage to being an individual investor is the
ability to get in and out of stocks easily.
If you have any question on the
special situation stocks you can call.
The world stock index
continued making new all time highs.
Your father's index however has not yet been
able to reclaim its high. The Dow has now almost made it
to the top of the one-day sell off candle so often is a place to
short but with the major broad indexes making new highs this one
may play catch up this week. The coming week is seasonally very
strong . Up about 83% of the time.
The Nasdaq also has
lagged the broad markets but it is nearing the gap filling and maybe
the Cisco upbeat comments will help it along.
This is the Monthly chart of
the Qs (Nasdaq 100 proxy) and you see only a buck away from a
new recent high. See how far away it is from the former highs though
as compared to the broad markets.
Here is the actual Nasdaq
100 weekly and stochastics about midway on the move back up.
The Nasdaq summation index back to the underside
of the broken trend so this week may show if we can get this break out.
And the BPCOMPQ had
another cross after the brief dip so maybe this means the correction
is over? There of course still may be a C wave down using that ABC
count and or the Nasdaq could be in a shorter term wave 5 now with a
drop to com only after that completes. I prefer at the moment to use
trend lines and volume.
The S&P 500 is now above
the one day drop candle and seems it is destined to test the March
highs pretty soon.
The Russell 2000 has made a very nice recovery also off it lows at the
200-day EMA double bottom. Now only 11 points away from a new high.
The broad index the NYSE
is all those stocks so is not only USA stocks. It as you see broke
out on Friday to new highs. (The S&P Midcap index also hit all time
highs Friday)
The number though of the stocks
in the NYSE that are now trading above their 50-day is not near its
highs so room to run more.
The Yield curve on this scale is still negative
(10 equals 1) but it has made good gains. Getting back above 1 (10)
would not rule out a recession but would make it less likely.
In the past, stocks have gone up
as oil did and this seems to be the case now also as oil is
once again at a little break out level.
The US dollar dropped below
support and the next support is shown and maybe the long term bottom
also ahead.
The dollar going down seems to have contributed to the rise in gold
as it is also, like oil, near a little break out area. This being at
$692.50
The HUI Gold Bugs (basket of unhedged gold stocks)
Closed at resistance so we could see a break out when stocks outperform the
metal. This is shown on the line in the center chart.
Here is the economic calendar from briefing com.
Now some additions to the watch
list TQNT has a
double level - lower at $5.31 then at $5.48
ALY on Friday got to
$18.98 so lets try this on a move over $19 on good volume.
There were a few picks that by
the close Friday had moved above our buy point but PAAS has a
second one at the break of $31.84 but is close to the top Bollinger
band.
HL another silver closed
right at its $9.44 break out.
JDO a good play on Friday
and now has a break out possible at $2.40
KCP above $28.10
CY also moved above the
first buy point on Friday so now would need to beat $20.42
ENER above $37.31
TKER is not a break out
play as it did it already on Friday but pointing it out as it closed
above the 200-day EMA so it may be a longer hold with a stop below.
The company has interesting products but seems it has poor
management but if they ever get their act together this could really
run.
BOOM we would buy over
$34.04
Gold stock KGC also
popped at the close. Hate it when that happens when we have a nice
set up but maybe will give a Monday entry.
CSCO had bullish comments
Friday and has a possible level at $27.00
Yet another silver stock SLW also closed a bit above its buy point so
maybe an $11.25 entry or a minor pullback.
For CRGN it has only been
10 trading days since the big drop so maybe not ready to try higher
but we would buy over $3.20 for a try.
DCTH had a good day
Friday on some rumors and would be a play over about $4.85.
Aurora Borealis from
auroraskies.ca
At one time I was driving very late night in northern NY on a country road and
saw the Aurora Borealis so brightly it was quite amazing. These pictures show
how interesting it can be.
A subscriber named Barry with the area code 212
called Friday and I could not return the call as the end of his
number was not recoded so please call back.
That's a full lid for today - Will see you all
during the week.
Check the
current
Earnings Calendar
on all overnight holds.
Check the current
message board also for other good
stock candidates as there are several there right now.
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