Stock Tiger Update

For Thursday December 14, 2006  

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Dow +1.92 at 12317.50, Nasdaq +0.81 at 2432.41, S&P +1.66 at 1413.22

The November retail sales rose 1.0% (consensus was for 0.2%) and sales, ex-autos also were up more then expected. 1.1% (consensus 0.3%) so consumer spending remains strong. With this news the markets started off the day on a rally but could not keep it going and this is not like it has been for the recent past. Even on Tuesday the pullback was not greeted as strongly as in the past

I read that the US trade deficit for October was  $58.9 billion down from a deficit of $64.3 billion in September. They say it was the smallest since the August of 2005. Exports are up and imports down. Here is the balance.

graph RTTNews

graph RTTNews

The Fed left the interest rates unchanged again for the seventh time. Earlier in the Autumn I was guessing they may lower rates in the early new year but with inflation still running above their target rates they may raise some more and that would be ok for commodities.

graph RTTNews.

Higher beta stocks had weak action today so must be that speculators are a bit more cautious. One would have thought that the strong retail figures would have done more for the markets so this flat condition may be a tell that the market it topping. This is options week though so give it until next week to confirm. There may be folks and or money managers who want to now ride out the year. Some may want to take profits but some also would like to push off the capital gains for a year by holding until January. They both would at least like the market to stay at current levels.

I saw this list today of the top 10 stock markets for the year according to their gains so far in 2006. I have no Cyprus stocks on no Slovenian stock at all in my portfolio but looks like the places to have been.

Now a brief look at the US market

The Dow stays in a tight range but soon we should see a more volatile move.

The S&P 500 still looks ok. The market feels weaker then this chart shows.

The Nasdaq S&P 500 ratio charts shows the weakness of the Nasdaq.

This is the 60-min chart of the HUI Gold Bugs and this looks like a bull flag in between the 50 and 200-period so a break out to the upside would be a buy.

The rally in rates continued today with a break back above what was broken support.

TPGI normal break out over $15.50

And GHI over $16.25

ASVI has not had much volume on the upside at all so would be cautious unless some better volume comes in over $16.70.

TWTC  if it was October this to me would look better as now it feels like the market rally may run out of gas. However a break over $20.50 still a play.

ACCP  this is one Mess mentioned in the chat room early this morning and it was a great pick going up 32% today. Wanted to show the longer term chart to show the resistance for  16 months. If it can get over $3 it may run for a while.

PTT looks pretty good over $4.30

Not thrilled with this chart but it is an interesting one. TPC would be a break out play at $1.21 maybe to the 200-day. Another play would be to watch the $1.04ish level for a bounce. Maybe a bit below.

OFIX maybe will be overbought if it gets there but break would be above $48.41

PGR in August gapped up after hitting $22 and made an island then ran up again. This time so far the same situation so maybe again it will go to the 200-day. Not a big gain to there but interesting setup.

A subscriber asked about this a week ago and it looked like it may be bought if it broke out of pennant. It did not and as it has has such a big ran it may pull back more. However it is worth watching the next day or two to see if it may instead out in a bounce at the 50-day.

Remember for holiday shopping online the StockTiger/Amazon store with so many categories from which to choose.

That's it for today and we will see you on eh weekend. Stop in the chat room and say hi.