Stock Tiger Update

For Thursday January 11, 2007  

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Dow +25.56 at 12442.16, Nasdaq +15.50 at 2459.33, S&P +2.74 at 1414.85

The US stock markets closed up as you see on Wednesday with still ok expectations for earnings season as AA kicked things so off with a good report. Apple may have helped also with more interest in tech as they announced their new iPhone and words about their iTV.

I noticed a blog where designers could send in mock ups of how they imagined the phone would be or could be - this has been an ongoing project but it is interesting to see what people came up with - some fun designs.

iPhone concept page I think you will enjoy    http://appleiphone.blogspot.com/

Hope you all have noticed our daily short video of some market comments and overview of some of the picks. It is on the home page updated before the market opens each day.

There is pessimism enough it seems so maybe some more rally still in the markets.

A popular writer at Realmoney.com wrote today, "I believe we are slowly shifting into a "sell the rally" mode of thinking, which is going to make for some tough going.

On Monday morning, I was complaining about my inability to find good long-side plays during my weekend research. That continues to be the case."

I did not send him a note but he could just look at our site if he cannot find setups of interest. Today we had JNC YHOO FRPT HEW AOB and HANS all make good trades not to mention some very nice chat room plays and continuation of a few past buys. We have had 14 profitable break out plays so far this week so not at all a problem finding at the moment though we do know that this can change quickly.

So lets take a look at the charts that show some bearishness first to show why many are worried.

The Dow broke its trend line and is now still below it with light volume.

dowbear.png

The S&P 500 also broke its trend line of 5 months and looks to be forming a possible bear flag.

spbear.png

The Russell 2000 in a stronger way broke the trend line and also fell below the 50-day EMA in what may be a bear flag.

rutbear.png

The Dow Utilities broke the 50-day EMA and trend line and has rallied a bit but also may become a short.

util1001.png

The PBCOMP broke below the 20-day EMA.

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So with those examples things do not look to promising but there is another development that adds some hope.

A lead dog of the markets has long been the Nasdaq 100 and if this index could start moving again then the market would likely be dragged up with it.

This ratio chart with the S&P 500 shows the bull flag break out and the big recent interest in the Nasdaq 100. Note the MACD crossover.

ndxspxbear.png

The index itself today broke above the short term trend line and is about at horizontal resistance and has increased volume.

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Here we see the Naz 100 using the QQQQ chart and it sure looks like a high odds that at least the highs will be soon tested. Also showing an MACD crossover so maybe in some time a break out as well.

qqqq1001.png

The Nasdaq meanwhile is also very near a test of its many year highs. Of course we will stay cautious as they may fail at the resistance but so many break outs continue to work so we will continue as we have been as long as they do.

nas1001.png

Meanwhile oil has been falling which does put a strain on the market. First of course is added worry that if the price is lower it may mean a lower demand thus a slower economy. Actually this may not be true as the amazing warm winter leads to diminished need. The other thing is that as it falls a lot of hedge funds had to sell making it drop further. It is not so much a supply and demand price as the media wants you to believe. It is now near the 50% retrace and the 200-day EMA so we expect to see a rally which can help the markets. Higher oil eases fears but it also gives more money to producing countries and they buy US stocks. I doubt it is at all ready to move back up for long term but a rally seems to be close.

oil1001.png

Gold has bounced off the 200-day EMA and is back above the 50% retracement but looks to me like a possible bear flag shaping up for another drop to come.

gold1001.png

Thanks to all who voted for us at stockcharts as we are ahead at the moment though not yet halfway through the month so we still appreciate each vote.

Now for some new setups to add to the watch list.

MVIS was a trade of ours recently and today in the chat room we noticed it right at  support and it had a red candle at the time. It was a low risk buy because if the support did not hold then we would have sold quickly for a small loss. It went up then 9% before pulling back for the close. I wanted to point this out as a reminder to check former stocks as were keep the charts on the site as often you can find new low risk entries during the day.

mvis1001png.png

UNTD may be a play over $14.00. It tried today and failed but sometimes they take more then one try. This was mentioned in the chat room as was the next one.

untd1001.png

IACI would break out over $38.66 and we would want to see better volume than today.

iaci1001.png

TRMM from Longshort has a level at @2.13 then $2.40.

trmm1001.png

EFUT  has the trend line overhead so wait for a break. This can be a wild stock.

efut1001.png

CRUS that Mezz brought up in the chat room already broke above its trend line but has had very good volume so it has a pretty good chance of a continuation this time as it is again over the 200-day and maybe the forth time is a charm. Maybe will give a little pullback first.

crus1001.png

SYNM was a former play that then pulled back and today had a super run. We will put it on watch again but it may take some time to break the trend to make it a buy.

synm1001.png

GTW is a nice set up to break out over $2.26

gtw1001.png

We mentioned that oil could bounce soon and show this only because it is and oil stock at support. If it breaks it does not look like a great time to short it as it would be better then to wait for it to rally back up to broken support. We would however watch this one to play as a bounce long trade if oil does rally.

sun1001.png

RATE also from the chat room had a big volume move today but closed just under the trend line so it would be a trend line break play.

rate1001.png

CHTR another tech stock looks nice as a play over $3.43

chtr1001.png

USNA gapped on an increase in guidance and has top resistance $52.85

USNA1001.png

Earnings season has started so do not forget to check stocks you hold.

That's a full lid - will see you on the weekend - have a good rest of the week!

That reminds me -  also to Vote often - once a day on the words "Vote for It!"

Check the Earnings Calendar on all overnight holds.

Check the  message board also for other good stock candidates as there are several there right now.

If you use StockTiger mail you can access your account using simply my.stocktiger.com

If you would like a free StockTiger.com email address that uses the Google Gmail interface so you can check your mail from anywhere,  (you do not need a Gmail account) send me (ST) a personal message from the message board 

Include your First and Last name and the name you want to use. Your address will then be (your choice)@stocktiger.com

 

The Financial Ad Trader
The Financial Ad Trader