President Bush announced a plan to help the people who can pay for
their current home loans if rates do not rise. This plan has at
least three options. To refinance into a new private loan or change
into a Federal Housing Authority-Secure loan or freezing their rate
for 5-years. This plan will help some who otherwise would loose
their home if the rates rose. If they keep them it means less homes
go onto the market so it will also help the housing industry in
general - at least for a while. The third quarter U.S. mortgage
delinquencies rose to a 20-year high and foreclosures hit an
all-time high so some relief is very welcome.
The jobs report was out on Friday and they say that there were
94,000 new ones in November and 170,000 in October. IMO this
means more unemployment as the US needs to
supply between 150000 and 200000 new jobs to just maintain a
steady level of employment. The market however tends to treat
these numbers as healthy and so does the Fed so they may only
cut 25 basis points on Tuesday. With real inflation maybe they
should not cut at all but it seems they are more concerned about
the market now than with longer range situations like inflation.
The bounce on the Russell 2000 shown
here in the weekly chart shows the resistance at the 50-week EMA and
the trend line. When this does break above those a futures trade may
turn out very well as the shorts will have to scramble. The
stochastics did not go below 20 but last spring it also put in a
good rally after a bounce at the same level.
We expect a pullback - maybe after the Fed report on Tuesday but this NYSE
chart shows it should also consolidate a bit then run to 10100 to
resistance. Into January however we think it more probable that it will make new
highs.
The NYSE percentage of stocks
over the 50-day is now back to midrange between buy and sell -
so let's consolidate a bit!
Transportation has made very good gains and it is
nearing resistance so here too a pullback should come.
The Value Line monthly still a pretty chart and it is back in the channel
again. We like the index as it is a good representation of the broad market.
The 30-year bond yield is the bond traders talk in action and they
rallied the yield back to 50-day EMA. It has resistance points there and
also horizontal and downtrend lines above so it may dip back down one more time.
Looks like the carry trades will start back up with the Yen pulling back
and it still has those gaps it may fill. More trade of this type will support
the US market.
GOLD If the US dollar as mentioned below should start to rally this
may put pressure on gold. Someone wrote and thought I was nuts for not being
outright bullish on gold now. It is true that it has so far held above the
recent 38% retrace and the 50-say EMA and is still in the triangle so you could
play a break either way. I think the odds are higher for a downward break. 780
is a level to watch as it needs to hold. Much depens on interest rates,
oil and the dollar so even though we are not so bullish like the gold bugs - we
would be interested if strong buying came over the top of the triangle.
US Dollar - we have
been expecting a bottom formation for some time and the EURO looked
topping. Noticed that RTT News wrote, "With the global central banks abandoning their bias towards higher
rates and starting to cut rates, the dollar may begin to recover
from the abysmal depth it has sunk to. This week, the Bank of Canada
and the Bank of England both lowered their respective benchmark
interest rates. Lower interest rates in the rest of the world will
make the major foreign currencies relatively less attractive,
thereby weakening them. Additionally, AG Edwards currency analyst
Patrick Fearon believes that the dollar is low enough that it could
prompt foreign officials to mount a coordinated effort to support
the greenback."
A stronger dollar is not so good
for exporting US companies but is better of the US consumer who buys
product from overseas or travel there. A strong dollar would also
help the US stock market. Go Dollar!
Economic calendar from briefing.com
We have the
Fed decision on Tuesday afternoon and the winding down of the
trading year begins. Portfolio managers have a strong interest to
end the year on a high note so may run prices up. It may be too
early yet as options expire at the end of next week.
A look at some Story Stocks
NNRI NNRF was co-sponsor of this past week's
Moscow show and conference
"AtomEco-2007"
but they also received an award from
Rosatom.
"Head of Rosatom today presented diplomas to winners in the
exhibition that provided the most interesting project of RAO....."
Dr.
Hans-Jürgen Engelmann, Project Manager, Shielding Materials and
Technology - for NNRF was a featured speaker as he talked of Nu Cap
and FEECOM/BIECOM
which you have heard of but not seen. They are now producing these
bricks in Germany.
FEECOM/BIECOM can be molded into many
shapes depending on use. Round to cover pipes and shown here is the
standard dove-tail design that blocks radiation in nuclear facilities and hospitals. In this
configuration each brick weighs about 1.9 kilograms and sells for
about $8 for FEECOM and $24 for BIECOM and these can replace all
lead. There is a ban on lead in the EU in 2010.
In Germany, there are 17
nuclear utilities with 1,615 metric tons of lead, which is the
equivalent of 1,300 metric tons of BIECOM. A replacement program of
10% per year would require 130 metric tons of BIECOM annually in
Germany. Similar quantities of BIECOM may be required at other
utilities in Western Europe. Further, the site managers of the
nuclear power stations are currently considering the use of FEECOM
and BIECOM to cover the tubes and pipes within the power stations.
The company announced in September that they ere planning on making
an permanent installation of this product in the 1st quarter
2008.
The stock itself is in deep oversold territory and does not jive
with the company's performance and future growth. ATOLL has had $38
million in sales already reported for the first half of the year
with $9.25 million in after tax profits and NNRF owns 50%. This
alone is a price to sales ratio for the stock that is greatly below
any similar type company. We saw how the price can get very extended
on the upside and now we see it on the downside. At the conference
lunch I sat next to
Prof. Valey Lebedev PhD the former
Deputy Minister of Atomic Energy of Russia who is now NNRF's
Chief Scientific Officer. We talked a bit about the shift in word
opinion of nuclear power and the technological advances that have
been made in the field. Russia alone has plans to almost double its
nuclear energy capacity and to construct 26 new nuclear stations.
Russia also hopes to export as many as 60 nuclear power plants in
the next two decades. To have someone with the credentials of Prof. Lebedev
as an officer with NNRF really highlights the caliber of the
company. Over the past months the stock has been a stock with mostly
it seem traders, running it up so high and now down so low. At these
entry levels and without the springtime small cap stock frenzy
perhaps we will be seeing more long term investors replace the
flippers. NNRF has so many projects and has established close
alliances and entered into agreements with the top tier of nuclear
companies in Russia. Plants do not get created in the short term but
these relationships and projects will pay off well in the future.
Now that the stock is so oversold it seems a good place for building
long term positions. There can be a retest of the low - or maybe
not - but with this solid company and with the field expanding this
is certainly an attractive stock to own.
On Friday the stock candle traded below the bottom Bollinger band.
The last three times it has done that the stock put in a significant
rally - as much as 100%. Also now the the RSI has finally gone below
30, an additional buy signal we use is to buy under 30 or when it goes
from under 30 to over 30. Stochastics is under 20 and that also is a
normal buy point or when it goes from under 20 to over 20. Note
that stochastics is showing a positive divergence and has stayed
higher while the stock went lower. This is bullish and this stock
made a bullish hammer reversal on Friday.
HENC dropped the E on Friday but the volume was low. In
advance of the well drilling in January a buy with stop shown or on
a break above on higher volume taking profits as appropriate.
PYR.v we know is usually low volume
and believe there are many just sitting with bids hoping to catch
some shares on the low side as the company is now making a profit
and the acquiring of assets may be completed this week or next which
will bring their production closer to 2,000 barrels equivalent per
day. The volume is too low now for this to be a stock to trade in
and out of in the short term but one to accumulate as the earnings
will really pick up in 2008.
PLTG In it usual range as progress
moves closer to sales of the Tennessee gas. The company had two
press releases relating to Tennessee and the first well may be put
on line still this month.
Kenner #2 Flaring Gas After Nitrogen Frac -
Tennessee -
Second $7 Million Appalachian Well Nearing
Completion
CYRX We have been waiting on Cryoport
for many months to make headway on their Express Shipper and this
week they announced that they have started production.
CryoPort, Inc. Begins Production of the
CryoPort Express Shipper(TM)
I believe that this facility is much too small for their larger
plans so suppose that they will hire an outside manufacture once
they are ready to step up production. They said in October that in
30-90 days they would release information about a shipper so perhaps
it will still be this year. This is a huge market so this could be
an excellent stock once they actually start their plan.
Nothing new this week on GWDC
but like what they are doing in changing management and adding more
countries to their list of suppliers.
BNDB
I know that not many have this as the float is so small that it is
hard to get in. It was able to about double in a month. This energy
drink maker did announce a split coming up
Bond Laboratories, Inc. Announces 2-for-1
Forward Split which will increase the float though not
sure that any holder will be selling - maybe after the run up some
will - worth watching and try their
Fusion
energy drink or the quick boost powder.
New additions for the watch list
JFR Over $11.81
OFG Over $14.00 -$14.15
PSPT Over $14.43
LRW Over $16.50 - note 50-day at $16.85
ESEA Short
under $19.90 again - this broke down on Friday and may continue but
note the dotted line support area
COWN Over $11.20 then 50-day at $11.47
- LOW VOLUME stock
PGI On break out of this bullish flag -
about $14.40 at this day
RNT Over $20.30 with 50-day EMA at
$20.88
CLR Over $25.00 or $25.20
FMER Over $21.25 to $21.37
GHDX Over $24.50 - $24.70
OLN Over $21.16
Photographs:
ALEKSEI PECHNIKOV
http://www.art.inspirationphoto.com
That's a full lid for today - will see you all
during the week.
We have published a donation page for the ease of you giving to a
charity of your choice. If you have benefited from our site we
encourage you to share with a charity. We have a few recommendations
who all use a high percentage of the donations for the actual program
use. If you have some we should add please send us a note.
Donation Page
Check the
Earnings Calendar
on all overnight holds.
Check the current
message board also for other good
stock candidates as there are several there right now.
If you use StockTiger mail you can access your account using simply
my.stocktiger.com
You can also access your mail using your Blackberry.
If
you would like a free StockTiger.com email address that uses the Google
Gmail interface so you can check your mail from anywhere, (you do not need a
Gmail account) send me (ST) a
personal message from the
message board
Include your First and Last name and the name you want to use. Your address will
then be (your choice)@stocktiger.com
Best regards,
StockTiger.com
| |
White
House's Band-Aid. subprime mortgage-relief plan.
