StockTiger Update

For Thursday November 9, 2006  

Close  - Dow +19.77 at 12176.64, Nasdaq +9.06 at 2384.94, S&P +2.88 at 1385.72

Our chat room service provider had a master power failure and the back up failed to start so the chat was off in the afternoon -  All is fine again so if you have never joined us please stop in.

The elections are over so in a couple of days the effect on the market should be about nil.

Actually though now we have to see what "outside" catalyst will spark to move the market out of this trading range. Today the market was not able to sell off much so the buyers decided they may as well buy and then the shorts had to cover yet again.

The changes in the House and Senate do not take effect right away and even then it does not mean any overnight change. Historically there are certain sectors or types of businesses that may be "helped" by one party or another but not always and it takes time and probably a new president. Regardless, there will be some who think real long term who may make some decisions on the outcome of the election but it should not matter much. What matters more is the market being up so much in three months without any correction and at the same time a failure to break out of this recent range.

We could see a break out but most technicians anyway would like to see a good pullback this month to set up for a bigger move a bit later. Historically the move in the 4-year cycle is 50% with the lowest 14%.

We put a poll on the site to see what price range stocks you prefer to trade to get an idea of what is the favored range so where to target more of our picks. Check it on the Front Page

We had a very good day today with at least 7 new buys - check the trade record

The Dow ended the day in good shape but how long can the buyers keep it going. Maybe the Nasdaq will try to catch up.

The Nasdaq has not broken out yet so maybe it can as you see on the weekly chart. The stochastics though are over 80 and at the moment rather neutral but it is right at a break out level and we buy them every day.

The Nasdaq to S&P 500 chart shows that now it has come back to touch the broken trend line from underneath. If it goes back above then the Nasdaq will be outperforming the S&P.

The thing that would make me cautious for a medium term holder now is the huge V shape formed by the spring decline and then the rally since July as shown on this Nasdaq 100 QQQQ chart.

Look at all the other Vs on this chart an each one of them was met with a pretty steep pullback and we have not seen it yet here. If it could pullback for a month or so and they make a move it could be stronger but try telling that to the dip buyers. However it could break out and rally into the end of the year also climbing a wall of worry and it sure would be one at that though my bet is we still see a pullback back..

The Russell 2000 is ok but the MACD still showing some negative divergence.

So to look at a pretty chart go back to the Value Line weekly. This is a good indicator of the broad market and it sill looks good here.

The CRB commodity chart shows the move back to the 38% Fibonacci line from the underside so a break above could make an extended rally and a failure a retest of the 50% line.

SWC did like we expected and broke above the 200-day and they reported better earnings so now maybe the 200-day will be support again for a good period of time. It has not started to turn up yet but almost and the 50-day has turned up. If you catch ones when they make a change (as this one may have done) then you can hold a long time as your stop can become and up trending 200-day (as it is just doing).

Of our movers today AW was a very clean break out on nice volume.

SIR we had the official buy price at about $3.60 as at the time hard to tell but this is one of my favorite patterns with a move up on good volume and a pullback on lighter volume and enough days in between to build up strength. They very often well reach the former high in one day and it did. This one may pick up more volume if it it now can break from this range.

While the chat room was down today I think it was Drexel who spotted CTDC moving. This had a similar pattern and this stock for whatever reason can often make a big run so no official buy in here but pointing out the similar pattern and that this stock can move.

Here are several new ones for the watch list. (these charts are not all end of day so the close is different then shown - see the current picks list on the site for current charts)

PWAV is similar to my favorite pattern above but on this case it is one that may enter the gap at $6.70. Note the 50-day at $6.90 as that may also give resistance.

URZ  uranium play has that space to  fill - maybe some consolidation first.

RECH a straight forward top break out at round number $30

TVIA another gap play (from sydney31268) A break of $1.21 on high volume is the play.

Hope that CHCG can pullback or consolidate before trying a break out at $4.00 -$4.10

DBD another that may be too extended now but a play over $46.00

TRX form Mezz has a little triangle and right at the 200-day so will watch for a break out.

OTEX $19.50 looks like the level to beat.

EMMS yet another gap play over $13.00 - $13.16

Excuse me - FTAR showed up at at first glance is interesting. Then however we notice the average volume of only 45,000 shares. These can be hard ones as if you get in on a high volume day it may dry up for long periods so hard to get out. Am not putting this on on the watch list but using it to remember to check volume of stocks.

NABI has the meeting of the 50 and 200-day EMA and that often means a big move and of course is bullish if they cross. It bounced at the trend line and 200-day but we did not see it there so the next buy would be a break out of $6.90 or a pullback to the trend line.

ANSW simple break at $15.95

That's all for now - see you on the weekend. For the latest complete list of picks check the current list each morning at stocktiger.com

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