A low volume Friday during a holiday week offers not a good
clue if the nice move up in the markets has enough conviction to
hold. The earning's season is about to start so this too will
cause volatility.
This week's Labor Department said nonfarm payrolls rose 132K last month
and this was in line with forecasts.
Payroll figures for May and April, were revised to the upside
and showed an additional 75K new jobs so some figure that means
growth is not slowing so much. The other side of this is that if
the economy still looks pretty good it would lessen the chance
of a Fed rate cut.
Seems traders also were betting on more M&A activity so
wanted to be positioned for possible announcements on Monday
I will not make many market comments in today's newsletter - lets
see how the new week starts out.
All the indices closed up for the week even
with the 10-year gaining as well.
The top and bottom sectors for
the week.
The INDU is not
overbought so can at least try once more to break out. It is a
triple top.
The Nasdaq has been smokin' but light
volume does not say much. It has been up 4 days in a row and 5 seems
about the maximum this year.
The semiconductor sector has broken out
a second time and to a new high for the year and even with the light
volume this seems a good sign.
The S&P 500 on the monthly chart holding
near its year's high while 1554 would take it to new all time highs.
The Russell 2000 is close
to a possible break out but note the stochastics are very high at
the moment.
The NYSE is at a break out also and while
stochastics are high - the RSI has room to run.
The number is stocks on the NYSE above their 200-day moving average bounced
right at support
The 10-year note yield is back to the
horizontal and trend line resistance.
The 30-year T-Bond yield dropped to test
the trend line and has bounced back up giving support to the idea
the long term rates will be going up for the long term.
One measure of inflation is this
basket of commodities of the CRB index and it has yet to
break out.
Oil however keep going as expected in
this season.
With gold being weak and the Dow strong our monthly ratio chart
comparing the two still points to the trend continuing at least
until the line on the chart hits the resistance though the
stochastics are high.
This is interesting as the GDX which is a basket of gold
stocks has broken out above the trend an now the horizontal
resistance. Meanwhile gold itself is not in rally mode. Maybe it
will soon start.
This shows gold not able yet to really get
going but the stocks above did, probably because the US dollar has
been breaking down.
Here is the US Dollar - it is at support but looks like it could test
the lower level.
Now a look at some stocks for longer term.
CYRX as most know has
been in a comment period with the NASD to then be able to move to
the OTCBB and off the pink sheets. As a result they have withheld
any press releases so as not to interfere with the process. You may
have noticed that they filed form NT10-K with the SEC. This form gave
them the extension to file their 10-K (quarterly report) until July 15.
This is only my guess but as they included the basic revenue results
for that quarter in the NT10-K that they may have only been waiting
until cleared by the NASD to file the actual 10-K so that may be
soon.
This stock is a wild one and as it was at
support and made a hammer etc., 8 trading days ago it ran up about
80% from bottom to top in 3 days - so of course the stochastics got
overbought and so it was again time to sell it down. This time I
think it reverses sooner maybe as early as Monday. The thing with
this one is - they run it so fast of course people want to lock in
gains - I mean 80% in 3 days on no news - much better to build some
position more slowly on any sell offs so if you do want to take partial
profits you have a nice base from which to do it.
Right now again back at the lower Bollinger
band and has tested the support and the histogram is still positive.
If the ask is say $1.28 one day and it starts to move the ask can
jump up 30 cents in one moment and not come back. That is why one
has to build on weak days.
CFPC It bounced at the
200-day and ran to the 50-day and back down in the familiar 200-50
pinball but it broke support so of course the shorts came in and the
filling of the gap was the obvious target. This should make all
those shorts happy and as they cover they should use the profit now
to buy the stock for the move back up. The company has been busy as they wrote to one of our subscribers recently: "Please note
the May 14th press release that states anticipation of signing up 2
more countries upon finalizing of documents, in addition to PNG,
Ethiopia and Jamaica. There are timing issues we can't control and
long term growth doesn't happen in 30 days. We'll put out more in
the public domain when details are finalized."
They
had filed with the SEC about a proposed Diedrich
Coffee offer so of course we look forward to news on that front as
well. With the holiday week behind us let's have the news flow begin
for all of our stocks! This one surely IMO is again at a buy point.
NNRF It broke below the
50-day EMA this past week and there was some selling of restricted
stock that was bought a year ago in a private placement so they were
up huge and took profits. Actually the number of shares sold were not
so much but this brought in the short sellers who figured they could
force the stock down some which they did.
The stock reached the 62%
retrace and many started to add or start original positions. The
nice thing about shorts is that they are built in buyers and at some
point will help fuel the move back up. The current stock price
movement is a technical situation and not at all based on the worth
of the company. I could not be more excited about the future of the
company or more trusting in the management and in their outstanding
competence with their work at building a diverse and strong company
to be a true leader in the field.
If you are new here and want a
good general overview of NNRF you can read the
OTC Stock Review PDF report on the company
http://www.otcstockreview.com/Files/NNRF/nnrf_review.pdf
My mother bought SYK at its IPO long before this chart shows as the
stock chart records only go back 11 years. I remember that my father
and her would talk to a broker every 6 months or year to see if
they wanted to change any stocks. This one could sit a long time or
lose a lot of its paper value and she was told to sell but she said
the company had good management and was growing so would hold it.
When she died it had split so many times and kept going up that her
gains were 47,000% - not a typo! She kept her eye on the big picture.
I bring this up for NNRF to remind us to keep focused on the big
picture and the growth that we are beginning to see here. The
temporary downtrend in the stock seems at the moment a bit
depressing if you look only at the short term but so did the chart
above many times to people who sold and never received the really big
rewards. I do not care about any short term gains the shorts may
have made - heck the stock is still up about 800% in 4 months - as
IMO this month we will see a good change of direction back to the
upside. If you are not adding now there will be a basic trend break
at about $5.30 then over $6.25 toward the first test of $10 on the
way higher.
On Monday I will be
going to the Moscow office of
ROAR to meet with its
president. ROAR currently produces 33% of the oxy-fuel
equipment in the CIS. I am very interested in their proprietary
technology utilizing hydrogen to power cutting and welding torches
or even cars. The green proprietary production
process creates a waste material of completely pure water and
simultaneously powers cutting and welding torches and regulating
equipment without the use of fossil fuels. It has applications in
the medical, transportation and heating sectors and I will report
back about this.
Here you see the 62% retrace and
close to the same levels of support as it has seen in the past 2
months. Long term the trend is for sure up so you can wait for it to
show or scale into positions if you prefer to have a lower base in
which to gain. This current pullback may have mainly been from
shorting and I have heard that if one places a good-'till-canceled
sell order on their stocks - like at $50 as example, that their
broker cannot then loan any of those shares out to be shorted so
this obviously would help stop the short selling in a stock. One could
move up their sell order price of course to what ever price they
want. I did that on my stock and tried to find the article I read on
this in the past but did not find it. If anyone knows if this works
and/or can find articles about this please send it in or post on the
message board. Thanks.
NPWS last week we pointed out
the 50-day EMA for the traders as the break of that is a good point
for a stop and the stochastics were overbought on the run up. This
is a play into the planed release of the fuel cell prototype for the
government review in late July. It should offer another nice trade
or two and of course it may turn into a longer term trade depending
on the actual results of their prototype. Right now as it is only in
development this is more of a technical trade and many did very well on
the first run up and some have nibbled at least on some here. We see
the stochastics now are below 20 and a typical buy is when they go
back over 20 on good volume and it appears that a stock price back
over $0.56 may be the level to use. The volume really has tapered
off so look for more to suggest another run.
Note about Pyramid Petroleum -
PYR on PVR.V on the Canadian TSX Venture exchange.
The volume has been
light as it trades on the Candian TSX Venture exchange and not everyone's broker
carries that exchange. It has been trading in between $0.35 and $0.45 cents. The
company will be doing a road show as they are a real company with real profits
so expect to see additional activity. We updated their page
http://stocktiger.com/pyrextra0506.php
to include a little table that compares this company to other oil
producers. In all aspects Pyramid should be
trading at levels about 4 times higher to be inline with the others. The
increase of their production was made in April so not many yet know. Their
real current production of oil/gas equivalent in barrels is 1335 per day so this
is very large for a company on the TSX exchange and they plan to move to the
Toronto exchange in time. There is
an additional merger in the works and this will of course increase their income.
Here is another oil/gas company that is a totally different
situation but one that is quite interesting and has and encouraging businesses
plan and though it has made a good move in the lat couple of months the company
is only staring its growth.
I wanted to bring your attention to PLTG Platina Energy. It is traded on
the OTC now so is fully reporting to the SEC and is current. This is a energy
holding company and it has made a very good run, it is very active on two German
exchanges and I have been watching it and waiting for it to pullback from
its high. At the moment it is at a possible support and if it happened to break
lower, the 50-day EMA and horizontal and trend support is shown just under.
I have made up a page to tell more about this company as one of their oil
sectors of the business uses joint ventures model where the company does not
have to use its own money or stock to produce solid income. You can read more
about it on the site
http://stocktiger.com/pltg0807.php
ThermaFreeze TFZP has been mentioned on the message board and
one of our subscribers had a sample of their product sent to him and was quite
impressed. I thought you may be interested as it is in a similar field to Cryoport.
ThermaFreeze makes a product, that you can see on their website and watch a
small animated presentation of, that is similar in working to a gel pack that
you put in your freezer and then add to your ice chest for picnics or to
send something that needs to stay cold via a shipper such as FedEX or DHL. This
product though holds the liquid in a way that it does not leave a watery mess
when it thaws and has many advantages to frozen bricks or other methods of
keeping things cool. The company I hear is running at full capacity so intends
to expand. I have not written up any details on this yet but wanted to pass it
along as it has a good looking chart. You notice that it has stayed above the
center Bollinger band for two months and if it could dip to the 32% retrace
where the center band is now located it would be a nice buy I think - though I
do want to learn more about their financials. It may however not
dip so that is why I decided do show the chart now. I may instead scale into it
by picking a bit up now and adding on dips or break outs. I have not bought it
as I forgot about it. I looked originally when it was mentioned by our
subscriber at about $0.20 and they had an old website and I guess I did not
"get" the product on first glance. This does not compete with CYRX as
this product is more to keep things cool - not frozen and of course has a much
shorter time period it can keeps things cool. It does however have a lot of
advantages to other methods and I do plan to buy this stock. Check their
homepage where you will find the presentation of the product.
http://www.thermafreeze.com/
Last week we gave the trading idea of buying RVNG on Monday and it had a
good week going up over 30%
chart
(as you probably know, HSXI will now be starting their sales campaign in
September so we are waiting to cover it until later in the summer when we think
it will again be a play. Other news such as other joint partnerships with their
AquaSonix may at any time boost the stock price also of course)
Just wanted to highlight for new readers that while
some of our long term stocks that ran up so fast have pulled back
lately and will soon start to move up again, our everyday activity
has been as usual in presenting stocks that one can make money on
each day.
We buy stocks as close to the break out
point as possible and suggest selling some the first day and setting
stops so you do not let winning positions become loosing ones as
these are technical plays. Many like to sell one half on the fist
move and then later maybe another half of that. Or they sell half
and set one stop lower on the half that is left and the final stop a
bit lower with the aim to keep as much as you can even if the stock
pulls back and still have a higher ratio of stock that are held for
future gains. As the stocks moves up you can move your stops up also.
We add usually over 40 candidates a week and set alerts to remind us
when they get close to the buy point. The ones that we buy that go
up a bit and then fail we are stopped out of so soon that any loss
is small compared to he gains on the larger percentage that make
significant moves up. So there is no reason to show here a chart of
a stock that broke out then later fell as we would not have held it.
Instead here is just a dozen examples of ones that are either recent
break outs or a few that are still going.
UA
was two days ago and is now consolidating. It ran up $5 on the first
day so hope at least half is sold and a stop to protect the profits.
VRSN in consolidation also and may make an additional run.
Now up about $2 from the buy.
UAUA up above $4 so far and TMTA after
running a few days gapped up on Friday. I typically sell my
remaining shares on such a situation and may buy back later
depending on the stock.
SUNH and SAMC both recent and SAMC was another gapper 4 days after
the buy. Some may have been stopped out and missed that gap so it depends on how
tight your stops are.
GLBL has been a monster, We showed the head and shoulders pattern on this
as we expected at least a $3 move but instead it has gone up $12 so far. DMC
is pretty new and keeps going.
CDE is from the past week while CHRD started in March and is still
going - now up $8.
APOL broke out and held its buy point and then gapped and we mentioned on
the audio update this week to watch for another move and it sure did and up
about $12 in two weeks. AMSC is the third break out and some may still
hold the original now up $7 while others have only played it as a day trade each
time. The point of these examples are to show that while we are not a broker or
money manager that we mainly show charts that present significant opportunities
to trade in a low risk way and make excellent gains even if traded very short
term.
The weekly economic calendar from Briefing.com
And now additions to our watch list.
AL clean over $87.84
LYO over $40.00
FDRY will wait for a move over $17.64
ONNN has a bit of a double level so pick your
spot with a top break out over $11.75 but aggressive traders may at
least try a scalp earlier.
CNXT can be a tough one
to trade as it can take a lot of volume to move it and sometimes it
moves great and reverses the next day. It seems to now be trying to
make a new trend up but still think it is a better real short term
or day trade. Over $1.50 would be a buy point.
SONE has two levels but the lower one is not
precise - maybe about $8.25 - the top is over $8.50
HLIT $9.20 would be a shot to
$9.80 or so but maybe a lower dotted line entry for experienced.
JRJC made a move on
Friday over the break out of $10.18 and pulled back but had good
volume so may be a continuation or one could wait for a move over
the Friday $10.40 high
WRSP simple - over $5.66
ABAT has a top break out
at $3.13 but a lower one over $2.80 may be a starter play.
Moscow has one of the largest
percentages of green spaces of any large city I have seen. There is
an area near my home that has a small river and in one section many
river grasses grow. Years ago this was totally wild and not cared
for at all. The city a few years ago decided to leave it pretty
natural but to build some slightly elevated walkways and spruce a
part of it up to make it a very pleased place for a walk. Typically
you see many baby strollers in this place but not on the day I shot
these.
That's a full lid for today - will see you all
during the week.
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