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Stock Tiger Stalking Stocks™
For Monday April 9, 2007
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Dow +30.15 at
12560.20, Nasdaq +12.65 at 2471.34, S&P
+4.39 at 1443.76
The Dow and Nasdaq had six sessions in a row of winning days
and that does not happen too often. Usually the markets are up
before a holiday and earnings will start this coming week so is
seems some are hoping for the best.
The Friday job report is out and it is stronger than
expected. The national unemployment rate dropped to 4.4
percent and non-farm jobs adding 180,000 in March plus January
and February figures were increased. The average hourly earnings
for workers rose in March compared with those a year earlier, to
$17.22 an hour. The gains in weekly earnings were even stronger,
up to $583.
So with a strong economy and wage growth which all should like,
it may not be be received well for stocks as it means the Fed is
unlikely to cut rates soon. It is weird of course. If the economy
slows enough the fed could cut rates to stimulate the economy but if
the economy is already to hot they won't. In fact they may in the
future raise rates to fight inflation. Higher earnings though also
mean consumers can spend more to help the economy.
We will only know Monday actually how this good news is taken.
Fabergé
Of the sector's weekly winners coal toped the list
and second was unfortunately tobacco. Why does most of the world
still allow the production and sale of this product? Of course
governments make a lot of taxes from it but the costs in health care
and pre mature death are much more than the money received. About 1
million kids start smoking each year in the USA alone and 30% of
them will eventually die from smoking related disease and it
would only take some stronger responsible leaders in the government
to stop the commercial production and sale of it. With more than
1,000 people each day in the USA dying from smoking related diseases
it seems to me the most negligent thing the government is doing now
is by allowing big companies to profit from this and for the
government to also take in billions from its sales. About 3,000
people died in the 9/11 attack and somewhat over 3,000 coalition
people in the war in Iraq - or about the same number that die from
cigarettes in the USA every 3 days. So buy tires instead but don't
smoke them.
Every major index was higher
this week but maybe good to keep some tighter stops with earnings to
begin.
Our long term hold Nucon-RF
NNRF had
news
this week as They
received certification authorizing the sale of NuCap(tm) in the
Russian Federation. NuCap, formerly known as EKOR was invented
in Russia and
is used for the encapsulation
of nuclear and hazardous wastes in applications ranging from on-site
stabilization, D & D and containment and encapsulation to
transportation and final storage and disposal.
The stock added an additional
85% and then pulled back a bit and some consolidation would be
beneficial.
NUCON-RF will file to trade on
the RTS, Russian Trading System and if approved would be the first
US company to be listed there. I personally think that would be very
exciting for Russian investors to be able to own shares in a US
company and one that has operating offices in Russia. You all must
know how well Russian stocks as ADRs have done in the USA. VIP, MBT,
GLDN and WBD as example are all at all time highs.
This is a long term investment
and it is better to have
it go sideways a while to build strength and support but there is
much interest and many day trade sites had listed the stock and that
brought in some day traders we do not really need or like. We look
forward to many months from now at much higher prices not just quick
moves in a couple of weeks and besides, long term capital gains save
you a lot of money on high profit moves if you hold a stock for a
year. The world renaissance in nuclear energy and in clean up
activities is very real and a long term change with countries around
the world participating. As in any of our special situation stocks
we are not interested in a short term move of a stock (unless
stated) but only in real activity with the potential of very high
gains in a longer term.
Another long term hold is
SDVC. On Friday it had a big increase in volume and the price
moved up some but it did not hold the gains as it went above the top
Bollinger bands. As a note remember that this is still Sona
Development Corporation. The name change should happen soon to
Sibling Entertainment but the actual
finalization of the merger will take longer. Because of this it is
not one to chase at this time. PBS will air a documentary -
The
Remarkable Red Hat Society
in April check the page for dates.
The show Hats will open April 29 in
Chicago
staring Melissa Manchester. They will then also open
in many cites in the USA and around the world over the coming
months. They announced the purchase of the Las Vegas production
company Dick Foster Productions. You can always give me a call for
more information.
The third special situation
stock GRSR is waiting for the year end audit to be completed
to submit to the SEC and they filred their automatic extension to do
this so we await further news.
The World Market Index
has totally recovered from the March dip and in fact closed at a new
high on Friday.
The Dow on Friday broke
above the resistance but on very low pre holiday volume. We want to
see break outs of resistance on higher volume so caution is advised.
The trend line above is also resistance. The RSI though is not over
bought though it does not have to be for a correction. The top
Bollinger band now is at 12624 so it there is a rally continuation
that is a place to watch.
The Nasdaq closed right at the gap so a
likely point for a retreat. This outlook could change but would need
a much higher volume to be taken seriously.
On the weekly chart however the outlook is much
better as it is again above the 50 on stochastics and in this view
may get back to the highs even if it requires some pullbacks first.
The Russell 2000 has stochastics over 80
though we know it can stay there a while. I have mixed ideas based
in this low volume week and would rather see a retest of the 50-day
one more time and then a move up..
The NYSE is only 37
points away form a new high and this is a much broader index so
likely to tag it at least as did the world index. If it does move
higher then watch the RSI for a move over 70 as an over bought
reading.
Gold on this weekly chart
is approaching the minor trend line (not miner) and that is at the
top Bollinger band as it closed up for 5 weeks running. I think a
pullback again is likely.
Oil broke out one week and pulled back to that break out line
the next on this weekly chart. Driving season is near and that can
mean higher prices ahead.
We had not looked at the yield curve in quite a while. The spread between the 10
year and 3 months yields. You normally would expect to receive a higher interest
on longer term investments but it was not that way for many months so any number
below 1 (10 in this chart) is a negative yield curve and often is present before
a recession. Notice on the weekly chart it has broken above the minor trend line
and may have put in a double bottom. We will watch for a couple of weeks to see
if this become a trend in itself and it would be good for stocks.
The US Dollar continued
lower and is near possible support. The good part of this is that US
companies selling products and services abroad do better s their
prices are lower in other currencies. - At the moment with the
jobs report Friday the dollar moved up.
One sector that has made it to
new highs is the Biotech Index. Here is a list of the
component companies.
In March for a while there was a red candle on my favorite index chart - VLE
but it ended the Month up with another green one.
Economic calendar form briefing com
Now to some new additions to the watch list. NBIX
is listed on the site only at above $14.50 but more aggressive
traders may like to play the range between here and there.
HLIT $11.07 would be a break out.
XLE $62.13 but volume has been falling off.
PCYC volume has been
picking up but has not been long since the fall...still would play
on a move over $3.30 and watch the 50-day at $3.43 or on a lower
volume pullback to the dotted line area.
BLUD a biotech that has
been on a run. The break out is over $34.07 but has just made a big
move so caution unless it consolidates first.
DNDN their cancer drug
news sent it flying. This now is not a break out play but a momentum
one and for aggressive traders.
GSF over $64.03
RIMM has a little gap but
bo is over $147.05
HGR has had good volume
up days but a pretty low volume stock - a buy on break of $12.25
ISIL over $27.26
BBBY has a gap above and
would buy over $41.50 with good volume.
GENR a penny right at
resistance and the 200-day EMA over $0.53
RPTN another low priced
one but has good volume and a buy over $1.90
GGB over $19.15
EBAY not really a great
chart but at the moment 200-day below the 50-day so maybe over
$34.35 for a scalp.
NVDA a more interesting
chart closed right at the 50-day and horizontal resistance so a move
above a buy with stop just under. You know I like trend line breaks
if the market does not correct to quickly.
JNS moved above our first
line on Friday but now needs to break $22.60
AGU good volume but did
not hold its Friday gains. Still though if it moves again on good
volume over $40 an entry or over $41.00 with a $41.53 shadow high.
ESLR on a move over $11.
Some Easter eggs
Zena Halloway
Photo
That's a full lid for
today. Have a great weekend - Will see you all during the week.
Check the
current
Earnings Calendar
on all overnight holds.
Check the current
message board also for other good stock candidates as there are several there right
now.
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