Stock Tiger Stalking Stocks™

For Monday October 8, 2007  

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Close Friday

Dow +91.70 at 14066.01, Nasdaq +46.75 at 2780.32, S&P +14.75 at 1557.59

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50 years ago - 1957: Sputnik satellite blasts into space - this was the news then: "A Russian satellite has been launched into space - the first man-made object ever to leave the Earth's atmosphere.The Russian news agency, Tass, said the satellite Sputnik was now 560 miles (900 kilometres) above the Earth and circling it every hour-and-a-half. Scientists predict the metal sphere will eventually burn up in the atmosphere but they hope it will send important data back to Earth before doing so. President Eisenhower has been informed of the Russian success."

The Department of Labor on Friday reported the monthly jobs showing a 110,000 September nonfarm payroll gain and August was revised to a gain of 89,000.  The Labor Department had initially estimated a loss of 4,000 jobs for August so as typical they were off so far by 93,000 jobs. I say so far because they may revise these figures again as suits them. Last month when they reported the 4k loss of jobs they set up a buying dip - talk about market manipulation. This report was enough to launch the market a lot on Friday. It is a bit goofy as the report could have had the opposite effect. A "strong" jobs report would show the economy not bad so the Fed need not lower rates more. Actually as the data last month was so wrong maybe they should take back the cuts - ha. However in the report they said that they had overestimated the new jobs since March by 279,000. The point is that these government reports are not very useful at all. ADT seems to be much better. In September they reported "Nonfarm private employment grew 58,000 from August to September of 2007 on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the ADP National Employment ReportTM. The estimated change in employment from July to August was revised down by 11,000 to 27,000.

This month’s ADP National Employment Report was the third consecutive weak reading and confirms the recent deceleration of employment.
"

It seems that each month the US needs to supply between 150,000 and 200,000 new jobs to just maintain a steady level of employment as that many new job seekers are created each month. The unemployment keeps going up but the government keeps the reported rate steady by not counting everyone in the headline number and only showing them in an addendum to the report linked below.

Here is the chart of the Department of Labor statistics. You can see that if 150-200k jobs are needed each month that in the last 4 months many more people joined the ranks of unemployed.

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Briefing.com wrote "These numbers don't show significant weakness in any respect. We believe there is no reason for the Fed to ease rates based on these data. This employment report should greatly ease recession fears which means it is moderately bullish for the stock market."

Seems to me they are only reading the headline numbers and listening to CNBC. The real numbers show an unemployment rate of at least 8.4% as it includes marginally attached workers who are persons who currently are neither working nor looking for work but indicate that they want and are available for a job and have looked for work sometime in the recent past. Regardless the markets rallied well in Friday and the Russell 200 tried to play catch up as it has been so depressed. Is this a pre recession rally?

How the major indexes did for the week with R2K the big winner.

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The leading and trailing sectors for the week

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The Dow almost made it to new highs so likely will give it a go this week. Though we are in a time when a pullback can start. Watch the stochastics for a break later in the week below 80.

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The long term chart of the Dow shows the decrees in volume on the recent move.

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Transportation index broke its resistance and is again above its 50 and 200 EMAs. It may make it to the trend line from underneath but we think not further.

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Nasdaq  gapped up from its Thursday close and on the daily is extended.

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The Naz 100 using the QQQQ on the monthly chart and it would actually be normal for it to make it to the 62% retrace at $57.63 but that does not tie in with the idea of a good market pullback starting soon.

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The semiconductor index which is important for the Nasdaq is still in the same range and no excitement at least yet.

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The NYSE closed at a new high but not convincingly.

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Russell 2000 made a 15 point move or $1,500 per futures contract. May have been a lot of short covering as seems the small caps will still underperforms the S&P for the next year or so.

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NYSE percent of stock over their 50-day averages reached the level that in the past was followed fairly soon by a pullback.

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Bullish percent indicator for the Nasdaq is not yet up to its former dip levels so the Nasdaq could keep going after some consolidation.

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Japanese Yen  has been falling so helping the US markets.

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Gold  Looks like it could make one more move but do not think it will last too long.

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The Dow priced in Gold. During the time from Jan 1 2002 to today Gold has gone up  from $275 to $750 for a gain of 170% while the Dow is up from about 10,000 to 14,000 and a gain of only 40%. I might add that the US dollar index has dropped form $1.17 in 2002 to $0.78 or a loss of about 35% so the gains in the Dow are in reality about 5% for the past 6 years priced in the dollar purchasing value for all outside goods services and travel.

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30-year T-bond yield is back up to the trend line channel top. The chart is similar to the 10-year and if this breaks it is not good for longer term rates like mortgages even if they are based on a bit shorter time frame.

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Value Line Index had not shown this one in a while. To me this is the broad market.

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The US dollar tried a little bounce. This low is good for US companies selling overseas but means all US people spend more for all imported goods.

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The economic calendar from briefing.com - There are few economic reports of interest this week until Friday when the PPI and Retail Sales reports for September are released.

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Some notes on longer term stocks:

NNRI - NNRF, Inc had three pieces of very good news this week.

One thing the first two press releases point out clearly is that the company is accomplishing their plan to get their reverences such that at least 50% com e from sales outside of Russia. This truly makes them an international company and as they add customers from several countries they will become more recognized for the leaders they are.

This spring NNRF raised its original revenue projection from the sales of the Power Quality Equipment of $50 to $100 million to a total of up to $200 million over the next five years. We had been waiting to hear and now the first PR tells us that the testing over the last months is completed and now after some meetings later in the month NNRF anticipates commencement of the installation of PQ equipment in government facilities throughout the Republic of Tatarstan.

NNRF, Inc. Completes Rigorous Independent Testing of Power Quality Equipment in Tartarstan

NNRF also announced that it has completed a strategic plan that will be presented to the Ministry of State for Environmental Affairs, Egyptian Environmental Affairs Agency later this month. They have been in talks and this global agreement will identify the priorities, amounts and terms of the engagement of NNRF by the Arab Republic of Egypt in regards to handling, containment and the disposal of high level hazardous wastes in Egypt. The joint undertaking will include a ten year plan for the replacement of toxic lead with NNRF's proprietary materials, FEECOM and BIECOM.

This is fantastic and the press release also mentioned that similar initiatives are currently under review in the Far East and Latin America. NNRF anticipates that these initiatives will be successfully concluded in the next two quarters.

NNRF, Inc. Announces Completion of Strategic Plan for the Containment and Disposal of Hazardous Waste in the Arab Republic of Egypt

The third press release this weeks was that NNRF received clearance from the Securities and Exchange Commission regarding its Form 10-SB registration statement This means that they can now file form 211 with NASD so after they can be quoted on the OTC which will facilitate the Company's intention to list on other exchanges such as the American Stock Exchange and/or the Alternative Investment Market in London.

NNRF, Inc. Receives Clearance From Securities and Exchange Commission On Form 10-SB Registration Statement

All of these announcements are very positive and it shows that the company is solidly executing its plans.

NNRI  Chart looking for the stochastics to get back over 20 as the RSI seems to have bounced at 30.

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PLTG is showing some weakness at the moment however the company continues to works its wells so it will not be too long before the oil in Texas and gas in Tennessee is flowing and turning into solid revenues.

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CYRX had significant news this week as they received their $4 million in financing to help them with their long range plans and the stock is acting much better.

CryoPort Nets $4.0 Million in Financing

CYRX   now sitting just under the 200-day EMA so a break above will be very bullish.

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CFPC is doing nothing in the chart as it seems bored investors sold out. However the company is shipping coffee and we hear that the chairman has just returned from Jamaica so we expect to hear something soon form the company.

Now additions to our watch list: We have several shorts so if we do have a market correction late in the week these may get some help.

APOL   Back over $64.00 then $65.50

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NWS    Over $24.70

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IP  Over $36.50 - use caution first few minutes of trading

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MS  Over $70.00

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Q  Over $9.60

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MFB  Short under  $15.00

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UMC Continuation here at $3.73

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JAVA  Over $5.90

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BTH  Short under  $19.90

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CDL  Short under  $3.95

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SPRT Shortunder  $4.78 or a bounce to some resistance - will watch

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CLWR Short under  $19.80

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PCS  Short under  $24.00 - shows support maybe at $23.25

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There are 14 metro lines in Moscow and not all trains are the same. I do not know the total stations now but they are shown on the left - maybe 130 so that would be about 260 separate trains

There are some older trains that I like with deep spring cushion seats from long ago. We have shown some specialty trains like the Red Arrow one in past newsletters.

This past week a train pulled up and it was painted with a floral pattern. Upon first entering I noticed that many of the seats were missing but then I saw the gallery.

They have joined each two wagons together so you can walk between.

(click on map for full size)

 

 

Here is one of the wagons - each trains has 9 or 10.

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The removal of the seats gives room to move around and view the paintings.

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See how one car opens into the next so there are four separate galleries that you can view without having to change wagons.

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That's a full lid for today - will see you all during the week.

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The Financial Ad Trader
The Financial Ad Trader