Stock Tiger Stalking Stocks™

For Monday February 5, 2007  

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Dow -20.19 at 12653.49, Nasdaq +7.50 at 2475.88, S&P +2.45 at 1448.39

I put in all the trades over the last four months (as I have the closing prices of those listed already) in Excel and checked to see the difference of selling at the close on the first day or happening to sell at the high on the first day. If you told your broker to buy all the picks at the buy price and then went to work each day) and then to sell at the close over the last 4 months you would be up 115%. If you happened to sell at the high on the first day you would be up 206%. August and September would add another 92% to this selling at the high total so I imagine at least half of that to the selling at the close. I imagine most people though did not sell all of their shares on the first day so made additional gains as many continue still. Regardless it is a good illustration that we are beating all other sites hands down in our consistent gains. Buy at the prices given and then set a tight stop if you cannot watch the market. If you can and volume is high then you may want to buy more then your usual amount and sell more on the first nice move. Excluding dividends you only make money on stocks by selling so sell often and do not let a winner turn into a loser as we have tons of new winners. If you have not been making consistent nice gains then you are not following the simple procedure of buying at the price given and taking at least some profit the first day and keeping a stop on the rest.

This will change someday when the market turns bearish and breakouts do not work so well but that is not yet the case.

On the the markets....

This week we see that the  strong sectors were: homebuilding, drillers, fertilizers, motorcycles, human resources, air freight & logistics, oil & gas equipment, paper products, motorcycles, home entertainment software, tires & rubber. The weak ones were: health care tech, trucking, internet retail, aluminum, diversified metals & mining, tobacco, health care supplies, residential REITs, insurance brokers.

Friday was a mixed close with the  Dow down and the other major indexes up.

On Friday the Labor Department reported that there were 111,000 new nonfarm payroll jobs added in January. The consensus estimate were for higher figures and the average gain for 2006 per month was 153,000. At first then this lower number seemed bearish but they also, as usual, revised the December data and added an additional 39,000 jobs there. If they do the same next month for January then January will have the 150k as expected. Wow - what a game.

The payroll data showed that there was no significant added inflation as earnings rose only 0.2%. Many are concerned with inflation as a way to combat it is to raise rates and people do not want that so the news Friday ended up good - so far.


Here a chart of the Payroll numbers including the hourly earnings.
Chart from RTT News

payroll numbers.jpg

January was an up month and you know the saying about how goes January so goes the rest of the year. This chars shows that it may be true. The average gains are over 12% for the year if January is up which it was.

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Remember on the Dow chart I put in the Fibonacci projection using the support area to set it up. It put the short term top at 12695 and we hit 12683 on Friday. Will be interesting to see how it works out but would certainly be no surprise to see it work out this way and the Dow to pullback this week so remember that if you sell too quickly you can always buy back but if you wait to long your losses take longer to make up. If the markets o pullback then preserve capital to buy back lower.

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The Dow Utilities came roaring back and almost back to the resistance.

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The Dow Transports continue with the break out. This is interesting as oil has been rising so someone either expects the economy to continue at a higher rate or for oil to go back down.

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Nasdaq was the strongest on Friday but volume was lower.

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The NASI did turn back up and if it can break above the broken trend line it will be a bullish sign. The MACD is about at the 0 line again also.

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Last week we expressed concern that the BPCOMP which measures the bullishness had dropped below the 20-day EMA but it turned back up and broke to a new high.

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However - the ratio chart compared to the S&P is still stuck near support. Since the low,  years ago, the Nasdaq has made nice gains but not compared to the other major indexes. For a real nice rally to get underway the Nasdaq needs to participate.

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The VIX again at its low so a reversal and more volatility may soon be with us.

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The monthly QQQQ (Nasdaq 100) does show though that noting now is broken.

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The SOX needs to break the trend line at about 480 to make the chips interesting.

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The NYSE index broke to new highs this week. I have put on a Fibonacci projection based on lower support levels and it shows a possible upside target at about 9417. That would also be close to the top trading channel line.

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The number of NYSE stocks trading above their 200-day averages broke out and continues to move higher. It is bullish but cautionary as it has not been this high - at least in this decade.

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The Russell 2000 broke out this week from its cup and handle type pattern. Even with a correction this points to a likely continued move for the next half year maybe. When it pulls back to test the 800 level it is important that it can hold it.

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The biotech sector after pulling back to test its 50-day EMA is back again to try for the break out one more time. We include 3 from this sector below.

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We had not looked at the yield curve in a while. This is the spread between the 10 year and 3 month bond yields. It is bearish when the 10 year pays less than the 3 month as usually you expect to get higher returns if you tie up money longer. Right now the 3 month is paying 5.14% and the 10 year only 4.83%.  In the past when this has been below 1 for 90 days then a recession follows within 9 months. That would put it at maximum in July. So maybe it is "different" this time? So far the stock market does not at all agree with the bond market on this.

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Here is the oil rally from the recent lows. You see the stochastics are now in overbought territory and the price is getting close to the trend line and 50% retracement so we expect a pullback again there.

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The world stock index also now at all time high and again here I have overlaid a Fibonacci projection and the short term top may be very near.

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Gold rallied this week then pulled back. For the most part gold stocks do not agree with the rally and have not done especially well. We have been having such spectacular success with our "normal" picks and not finding such good ones now in the gold sector keeps us on the fence at the time being for gold. Motorhead though on the message board points out GBN with a bo at $2.04

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Maybe this bottom on this ratio chart will hold but we would prefer to buy gold stocks again when they are on fire fire. Here it would be if this breaks above the upside line.

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Here is the economic calendar from briefing com.

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Now 15 new ones for out watch list. With 38 stocks that broke out this week we needed many to take there place. I received ads for sites and one at $50 a month gives you about 7-10 new ideas each week or 28 to 40 a month. We had that many winners alone in only one. Another now advertising on CNBC wants to sell 12 picks a week in channels to choose from - ha.

Ad yet another site for $99/month said they have 4 picks a day but it seems they only had the last winner over a week ago - one winner.

well, on to ours...........

Several of these are suggestions from subscribers in the chat room as we have many good eyes watching for good set ups. I did not have all the name information when the charts were made but did, where I could, give some credit on the picks page to those contributing. Thanks a lot.

FNF our only financial stock would break out over $24.36

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MSI has had several green days and think it will be worth a play over the line if volume is strong.

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While searching for picks late Friday afternoon MSPD came up right after MSI above. It was too late then to buy and at this point this is not on the picks list with a buy point but worth watching. Note on the left the old one day support at $2.26 in June - that could still offer some resistance as it is a technical level and many players may use it. This stock in the past has had a habit of pulling back after a run up so it may again this time. The positive thing is it is now above the 200-day and the 50-day EMA is now pointing up.

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ASTE over $37.40 looks good and volume has been increasing.

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TRBM after the huge volume day in mid January the volume is quite low at 100k shares. If it picks up it may take out that 200-day to stay so will watch the $2.35 area for an entry on volume.

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HTI has two possible entries - over $8 and over $8.50

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TG over $23.55. This is one that some may scale into a bit as it looks pretty good for a try at least to the break out point. What I mean is that instead of buying your full amount only on a break out that you make a smaller buy in the current range and add if it dips a little or when it breaks out. That has more risk but gives added profits if it works out. You would of course use a stop in case it goes the wrong way.

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THRM bo over $10.50

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BVF mentioned in the chat room has a nice clean setup over $21.14 for first move to $21.93 then a possible second break out.

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CMS - energy - pretty clear over $17.00

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EP - energy - over $15.75 but note the volume has been dropping so need to see a pick up in that.

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RHT  -  Red Hat. The white lines are all equal length. Note that often at about that length of time that this stock makes a big move one way or another. Maybe it will repeat this pattern. If so it looks like in less than 5 days it will make some move. Lets figure it will be up and buy over $23.20

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Earlier we showed the chart of the biotech sector so thought we better show a few charts from  that sector.

IMMU has had quite a habit of going up then pulling back in a bull flag then making new highs. This last pullback was to the trend line and may have broken out of the bull flag so would buy over $4.40 on good volume.

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GLGC has had quite a few heavy down volume days but despite that has been going up. I would give it a try at $1.80 if volume looked like it would run above average. Note the 200-day at $1.95 as that may be resistance.

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CELG pulled back to the 38% retrace and after consolidating started back up on increased volume. Above $56.45 look like it could be bought

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While I think f of it - our long term pick GRSR is fine. The move to the OTC has not taken pace yet but will and of course there are very short term traders who were gaming that move so they seemed to not want to wait so a low volume pullback is all. NNRF is also working on the SEC filing to make them fully reporting.

Here is a penny stock sent in. EEGC has resistance at $0.132. this is high risk so only for those used to this type stock.

 eegc202.png

Around Moscow where there are apartment buildings you find small plain brick buildings that house the water pipe controls for that area. They were not attractive and sometimes were the target of graffiti. The city started a couple of years ago to hire artists in the summer to paint all of those building an interesting and attractive way so now there are hundreds of these art work buildings around town. Here are a couple of examples.

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Once again - You can vote  once a day on the words "Vote for It!" and help us finish of February in the top position.

If you like interesting photography this site has some really super creative photos from Chema Madoz

 http://haha.nu/creative/creative-photos-by-chema-madoz  

That's a full lid - see you during the week. Have a great one and stop in the chat room during market hours to say hello.

Check the current Earnings Calendar on all overnight holds.

Check the current  message board also for other good stock candidates as there are several there right now. Look as an example for the basically running thread from user MB in the picks section. He has a lot of good movers that fall outside the setup criteria we feature but have made some excellent gains. He features both stocks and funds. Our break out and pullback plays are not the only way to make money. I see as one he mentioned to watch as a penny stock SBEI thanks MB.

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The Financial Ad Trader
The Financial Ad Trader